基于PSR模型的新疆县域耕地集约利用时空演化特征  

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Intensive Cultivated Land use in the County-level Regions in Xinjiang Based on the PSR Model

作　　者：程兰花 杨德刚[1] 张新焕[1] 张豫芳[1] CHENG Lan-hua;YANG De-gang;ZHANG Xin-huan;ZHANG Yu-fang(Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences ,Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第2期493-502,共10页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(41571159)

摘　　要：科学合理地提高耕地集约利用水平,是保证地区粮食安全和促进地区可持续发展的有效途径。以新疆83个县域为研究单元,基于PSR模型构建指标体系,采用熵权法确定指标权重,以综合加权求和模型确定耕地集约利用程度,并构建耕地PSR系统协调度模型评价耕地PSR子系统的协调性,同时引入纵向比较系数和综合比较系数,借助Arc GIS 10.2空间分析工具来揭示和分析2000—2013年新疆县域耕地集约利用时空演化特征,利用多元回归分析对造成新疆县域耕地集约利用时空演化特征的影响因素进行深入探讨。研究发现：2000—2013年新疆整体耕地集约利用压力指数（P）平稳上升,状态指数（S）波动变化最终有所下降,响应指数（R）波动变化最终有所上升,且S与R在不同时段变化趋势相反;耕地集约利用程度（F）较平稳上升,耕地PSR系统协调度（D）波动下降;83个县市中F提升的县市多于降低的县市,D降低的县市多于提升的县市,仅15个县市F和D均提升,多数县市耕地集约利用不尽科学合理;耕地集约利用程度具有明显的空间差异,表现为由空间聚集向空间均衡发展;各县市农业科技发展情况、人口、自然条件和经济发展水平均不同程度地影响着县域耕地集约利用程度,但年际间各影响因素与耕地集约利用程度的关系又略有不同。It is an effective way to improve the level of intensive cultivated land use scientifically and reasonably so as to guarantee the regional food security and promote the regional sustainable development. In this study,the 83 county-level regions in Xinjiang were taken as the study units,an index system was developed based on the PSR model,the entropy value method was used to determine the index weight,and the composite model of weighted summation was taken to evaluate the level of intensive cultivated land use. Moreover,the PSR system coordination model was built to evaluate the subsystem coordination of cultivated land use in Xinjiang. In Addition,the longitudinal comparison coefficient and the comprehensive comparison coefficient were introduced,the Arc GIS 10. 2 spatial analysis means were used to reveal and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of intensive cultivated land use at county scale in Xinjiang during the period from 2000 to 2013. In the end,an in-depth discussion on the factors affecting the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land use in Xinjiang was made using the multiple regression analysis method. The results of this study revealed that the pressure index P of whole Xinjiang was holistically promoted steadily during the period from 2000 to 2013; the state index S of whole Xinjiang was overall fluctuated and eventually decreased during the study period; the response index R of whole Xinjiang was overall fluctuated and eventually increased during the period from 2000 to 2013. On the side,it was pretty obvious that the variation trends of state index S and response index R were opposite in different periods. It was also found that the degree of intensive cultivated land use F was overall increased steadily,and the harmonization degree of cultivated land PSR system D was overall decreased in a fluctuation way in whole Xinjiang during this period. It was also pretty easy to find that the regions with an increase of intensive cultivated land use F were more than those with a decrease in the 8

关 键 词：PSR模型 耕地集约利用 时空演化 多元回归分析 新疆 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]