基于C4.5决策树算法的道路结冰预报模型构建与应用  

Construction and Application of Road Icing Forecast Model Based on C4.5 Decision Tree Algorithm

作　　者：陈凯[1] 徐国庆[1] 熊焘[1] 侯纪勇[1] 王曦晨 戚国辉 刘青 CHEN Kai;XU Guo-qing;XIONG Tao;HOU Ji-yong;WANG Xi-chen;QI Guo-hui;LIU Qing(State Grid AC Exchange Construction Company, Beijing 100052, China;Unisplendour Software System Corporation Limited, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司交流建设分公司,北京100052 [2]紫光软件系统有限公司,北京100084

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2018年第1期57-62,共6页Transport Research

摘　　要：为准确预报冬季道路结冰情况,保障交通运输安全,需要构建精度高、实用性强的道路结冰预报模型。将道路是否结冰抽象为二元分类问题,采用C4.5决策树算法,以通辽地区历史日最低气温、日降水量、日积雪深度和道路结冰数据为训练数据,构建了道路结冰预报模型,并以赤峰地区和沈阳到锡林浩特特高压设备运输期间道路结冰预报为例对模型的准确率加以验证。计算结果表明,赤峰地区道路结冰模型准确率为93.3%,沈阳到锡林浩特特高压交流输变电主设备运输期间道路结冰预测结果与实际情况符合度高达86.4%。这表明基于C4.5决策树算法的道路积冰预警模型准确度较高且实用性强,可作为我国东北部地区冬季道路结冰预报方法加以推广,也可为其他地区道路结冰预报提供参考。In order to predict the road icing accurately and ensure the road traffic and transport safety inwinter, it is necessary to construct a prediction model with high precision and strong practicability. Thepossibility of the road icing was abstracted into a binary classification issue, and C4.5 decision tree algo.rithm was used to construct the prediction model. The previous daily minimum air temperature, daily pre.cipitation, daily snow depth and road icing data of Tongliao were chosen as training data. The accuracy ofthe model is verified by the example of the road icing forecast in Chifeng area and Shenyang–Xilinhaoteultra-high voltage equipment transportation. The calculation results show that the accuracy of road icingmodel in Chifeng area was 93.3% and the coincidence between the predicted results and the actual situa.tion of road icing during the transportation period of the main equipment in Shenyang-Xilinhaote ultrahighvoltage equipment transportation was up to 86.4%. It suggests that the road icing prediction modelbased on C4.5 decision tree algorithm has high accuracy and practicability, and can be used as an accurate method to predict the road icing in Northeast Chinaorrefered in otherareas.

关 键 词：道路结冰 C4.5决策树 模型训练 预报模型 特高压主设备运输 

分 类 号：U418.41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]