基于供需形势分析的中国天然气产业“一带一路”发展策略  

China's Natural Gas Industry's "Belt and Road" Development Strategy Based on Supply and Demand Analysis

作　　者：佘源琦[1] 张福东[1] 李君[1] 杨慎[1] 邵丽艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院廊坊分院,河北廊坊065007

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2018年第2期1-5,27,共6页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

基　　金：中石油股份公司预探前期项目"股份公司天然气勘探潜力及发展趋势研究"(编号:T11120)部分成果

摘　　要：在全球能源变革与国内深化能源结构调整形势下,未来中国天然气消费必将持续快速增长。通过对中国天然气供需形势分析认为,低碳发展目标情景下天然气需求将达到最大,新建评价模型预测该情景下2030年消费总量将达到6 300×10~8m^3;未来制造业、生活消费、电力、交通是重要增长领域。对中国天然气可获得性分析认为,未来对外依存度仍将快攀升。借力"一带一路"倡议,谋划天然气产业布局,是未来平衡国内供需、保障能源结构调整顺利实施的可靠举措。对沿线国家天然气资源与产业现状、国际天然气贸易形势分析认为,沿线国家天然气资源丰富,总体产业格局与中国具有较强的互补性。战略给中国天然气产业带来拓展良机,建议树立天然气能源安全意识、主导区域天然气产业格局、建立多元化获取渠道、完善基础管网与储备体系、加强交易中心建设、强化产业政策引导、推行国内资源效益序列开发等措施是发展壮大中国天然气产业。With the global energy revolution and the deepening of domestic energy restructuring, China's natural gas consumption will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Through China's natural gas supply and demand analysis, the demand for natural gas under the low-carbon development target scenario will reach its maximum,and the new evaluation model predicts that the total consumption in2030 will reach 6300 × 10~8 m^3; with the greatest demand growth from manufacturing, power industry and transportation. The analysis of the availability of natural gas in China sees that foreign dependence will rise rapidly in the future. It is a reliable measure to make use of the "Belt and Road" strategy to plan the layout of the natural gas industry, and balance domestic supply and demand so as to ensure the smooth implementation of energy restructuring. According to the analysis of the natural gas resources and industry status quo in the countries along the route and the international natural gas trade situation, countries along the route have abundant natural gas resources, and are highly complementary with China in the overall industry layout. The strategy has brought great opportunities to China's Natural Gas Industry; we should set up natural gas energy safety awareness, play a leading role in regional natural gas industry layout, establish diversified access channels, improves basic network and reserve system, strengthen trading centers, intensify industry policy guidance, and promote domestic resource efficiency sequence development. These are important strategies which can grow and expand China's natural gas industry.

关 键 词：天然气供需 “一带一路” 天然气产业 能源安全 发展策略 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]