改进PERT模型在严寒地区抽水蓄能电站建设工期中的应用  

Application of Improved PERT Model in Construction Period of Pumped Storage Power Plant in Cold Region

作　　者：王宁波 肖宇轩 吕呈新 谭红强[3] WANG Ningbo;XIAO Yuxuan;LYU Chengxin;TAN Hongqiang(Henan Tiamchi Pumped Storage Co. , Ltd. , Nanyang, Henan 473000, China;College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Wuhan University, Wuhan 43（D72,China;Beijing Engineering Co. , Ltd. , Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]河南天池抽水蓄能有限公司,河南省南阳市473000 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉430072 [3]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100024

出　　处：《西北水电》2018年第2期58-61,共4页Northwest Hydropower

摘　　要：中国抽水蓄能工程遍及南北,气候差异对于工程建设工期影响显著。针对一般计划评审技术(PERT)方法以随机分布来表达工序历时,而未考虑季节气候影响的问题。通过分析与时间背景相关的影响因素,引入时间背景修正系数,用经验估计和数据统计的方法,建立修正系数与影响因素关系的函数,得到考虑时间背景的工序工期修正系数,对工序历时分布参数进行修正,建立改进PERT模型分析工程关键线路和工期分布。案例分析表明,该方法对严寒地区抽蓄工程工期偏差具有良好的适应性。The pumped storage power plants have been building across China. The climate difference here and there largely impacts the project construction period. While the plan evaluation and review technology method（ PERT） is applied,duration of work procedures is represented by random distribution and the climate impacts are not considered. Through analysis on potential impact factors related to time background,the correction factor of time background is applied. By application of the empirical estimate and numerical statistic methods,the relationship function between the correction factor and the impact factors is built. The correction factor for the construction period of the work procedures in consideration of the time background is derived. With this correction factor,the distribution parameters for the work procedure duration are corrected. The improved PERT model is established to analyze the key routes and construction period distribution. The analysis proves that the method is with good adaptability to the construction period deviation of the pumped storage power plants in cold region.

关 键 词：工期预测 抽水蓄能电站 改进PERT 时间背景 修正系数 计划评审技术 

分 类 号：TV743[水利工程—水利水电工程] C935[经济管理—管理学]