基于新实证产业组织理论的市场势力测度——以全球光伏产业(2010-2013年)为例  

The Estimation of Market Concentration Based on NEIO Methodology——An Empirical Study Focusing on Global Photovoltaic Industry

作　　者：沈曦[1] SHEN XiA

机构地区：[1]常州天合光能有限公司战略市场部

出　　处：《产经评论》2018年第2期21-36,共16页Industrial Economic Review

摘　　要：传统的市场势力测度实证分析依赖于单纯的市场份额数据,忽略了企业间竞争博弈行为因而受到批评。相比传统的方法,运用新实证产业组织的计量方法能更有效地分析外部环境、潜在竞争等不可直接观察的变量对市场结构的影响。基于全球光伏企业2010-2013年截面数据样本,研究市场势力的变化情况,静态分析结果表明,处于产业上游的硅片企业比下游的电池和组件企业拥有更大的市场控制力和溢价能力;而基于跨期样本的动态研究则显示,2011年开始的"双反"确实影响了产业结构,大大削弱了在位企业的市场势力,但是随着产业的回暖,企业境遇得到了一定的改善。进一步针对市场规模的研究发现,市场规模的扩大会加剧企业间的竞争,从而证明了可竞争市场理论存在于光伏市场。从产业政策角度看,当前我国市场结构重组不仅是寡头企业谋求更大市场势力的手段,更是产业通过市场实现更新换代的过程。政策制定者需根据实情,引导企业培育差异化发展战略。Traditional methodology for market powers measurement based on pure market share data is widely criticized due to ignoring competition behavior analysis. The New Empirical IO’s econometrical model, focusing on market structure estimation, efficiendy analyzes the effects from counterfactuals including external environment, potential competition factors etc. The New Empirical 10^ econometrical model, focusing on mar-ket structure estimation, efficiently analyzes the effects from counterfactuals including external environment, potential competition factors etc. Applying empirical data from global PV （ Photovoltaic） industry, paper esti-mates the dynamic change of market structure. The static result reveals the advantage of upstream firms on market power and price negotiation power. Furthermore dynamic result claims the change of market structure. ADCYD at 2011 weakens the market power of dominated firms. The demand rewarming from downstream somewhat improves firms’ situation. However, the expansion of market size attracts more entry, and acceler-ated competition soon. For industrial policy maker, the reallocation of market structure not only impacts domi-nated firms ＂market power, but also simulates the updating of industry. Mature industrial policy should lead firms to foster differential development strategies.

关 键 词：市场势力 新实证产业组织理论 勒纳指数 光伏产业 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]