俄罗斯政府债务演进的政治经济逻辑及风险研究  

Political, Economic Logic and Risk of Russian Government Debt Evolution

作　　者：杨攻研 曲文轶[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2018年第2期77-100,共24页Russian Studies

基　　金：2016年辽宁大学亚洲研究中心项目(Y201608);辽宁省教育厅2016年度人文社科研究一般项目(WQN201611);2017年度辽宁省财政厅财政科研基金项目<辽宁地方政府债务风险防范与化解研究>(17C006);2018年度辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(2018lslktqn-026)的资助

摘　　要：全球金融危机以后,政府债务成为国际经济领域受到持续关注的焦点。俄罗斯政府债务问题由来已久。自普京执政以来,俄罗斯中央政府债务水平持续下降,但地方政府债务规模则持续膨胀。究其根源,国家经济安全战略催生了中央政府层面极低的债务水平;普京所建立的中央与地方全新的政治契约,改变了地方精英阶层的行为和激励,造成了地方政府债务的增长。在欧美金融制裁背景下,短期内俄罗斯政府债务并不会成为危机的引爆点。然而,后危机时代这一体系的缺陷日渐显露,地方政府沉重的债务负担正在挤出长期投资,债务与增长的恶性循环也正在形成。俄罗斯政府债务管理方略面临艰难的抉择:国内层面重塑政治契约以重振地区经济增长,国际层面适度平衡经济安全与国家发展利益,以改变当前中央政府债务的抑制状态,成为未来政策调整的重中之重。俄罗斯政府债务背后的政治经济逻辑及风险,是本项研究的主要对象。Since the global financial crisis, the government debt has become a focus with sustained attention within the international economic field. Actually, Russia has a long history in government debts. Under Putin＇s administration, the debt level of Russian central government has continued declining, but the scale of local government debts has expanded. The root cause lies in the fact that the national economic security strategy gives birth to the extremely low level of central government＇s debts. The new political contract between central and local governments, established by Putin, has changed behaviors and incentives of local elites, causing growth in local governments＇ debts. Against the backdrop of financial sanctions both from Europe and the U.S., in the short term, the Russian government＇s debts will not become a flashpoint of the crisis; however, in the post-crisis era, the defects of this system are emerging, the heavy debt burden of local governments is squeezing out the long-term investment. The vicious cycle of debt and growth is also being formed. The Russian government faces difficult choices in its debt management strategy. On the one hand, domestically speaking, it needs to reshape political contracts to reinvigorate the regional economic growth. On the other hand, internationally, it needs to moderately balance economic security and national development interests in order to change current repression of the central government＇s debts, which has become the most important policy adjustment in the future. The political, economic logic and risks behind the Russian government debts are the main objects of this study.

关 键 词：俄罗斯中央政府债务 俄罗斯地方债务 俄罗斯经济安全 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系] F815[政治法律—政治学]