政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Financing and Investment Behavior

作　　者：才国伟[1] 吴华强[1] 徐信忠[2] CAI Guowei;WU Huaqiang;XU Xinzhong(Lingnan College of Sun Yat - sen Universit;Guanghua School of Management, Peking Universit)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《金融研究》2018年第3期89-104,共16页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71372146); 广东省普通高校创新团队项目(2016WCXT001); 广东省软科学项目(2015A070704019)资助

摘　　要：本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。Based on the Chinese A-Share Listed Companies quarterly data and the change rate of local government officials in 31 province-level regions from 2003 to 2013,this paper studies the impact of policy uncertainty on corporate financing and investment by using the change rate of local government officials as the proxy of policy uncertainty. We find that policy uncertainty is strongly negatively related to debt financing,but not to equity financing. There exist two channels through which the policy uncertainty effects the corporate investment. Policy uncertainty cuts investment 1） directly by reducing financing; 2） indirectly by reducing the coefficient of financing on investment. The later means that,the higher policy uncertainty,the smaller positive coefficient of debt and equity financing on investment. Further study finds that the indirect channel significantly exists among policy closely related companies,such as the state-owned and the big companies,but not significantly exists among others. Financing availability is one of the most important preconditions that economic policy uncertainty effects investment. During the period of high financing availability, economic policy uncertainty significantly lower corporate investment,but not that significantly during the period of low financing availability. So,reducing policy uncertainty and strengthening the long-term system construction play an important role in keeping steady economy growth.

关 键 词：政策不确定 官员变动率 企业融资 企业投资 

分 类 号：G31[文化科学] G32