中亚五国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易互动关系研究——基于2001—2015年协整分析与Granger因果分析  

An empirical study on tourism and trade interaction between five central Asian countries and China-- Based on Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Analysis from 2001 to 2015

作　　者：薛晨浩[1] 任婕[2] 赵多平[3] XUE Chenhao1, REN Jie2, ZHAO Duoping3(1. College of Management, Northwest University for Nationalities, Lanzhou 730124, China ; 2.Institute of Culture Academy of Social Sciences of Ningxia, Yinehuan 750021 , China ; 3.College of Resource and Environment, Ningxia University, YinChuan 750021, Chin)

机构地区：[1]西北民族大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730124 [2]宁夏社会科学院,宁夏银川750021 [3]宁夏大学资源环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《南阳师范学院学报》2018年第3期31-36,共6页Journal of Nanyang Normal University

基　　金：国家社科基金(16CGL032);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(31920150109)

摘　　要：选取2001—2015年中亚五国入境中国客流量和我国选出口贸易统计数据，运用协整分析与Granger因果检验方法，对进出口贸易与入境旅游关系机理进行实证研究．研究结果表明：中亚五国入境我国旅游游客量与进出口贸易额之间存在长期的均衡关系；Granger因果检验结果显示，中国对哈萨克斯坦进口贸易与入境旅游、哈入境我国旅游与中国出口贸易是单向Granger原因；中国对土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦进口贸易是入境旅游客流量的单向Granger原因；中国对吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦出口贸易是入境旅游客流量的单向Granger原因.Based on the data of inbound tourism and trade between five central Asian countries and China from 2001 to 2015, this paper analyzes the relationship between import, export trade and inbound tourism by co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. Results show that, trade and inbound travelers in China from five central Asian countries formed a long-term equilibrium relationship. And the results of Granger causality tests indicates that there exists a one-way Granger causality relationship between imports and inbound tourism, a one- way Granger causality relationship between inbound tourism and exports in the case country of Kazakhstan. There is a unidirectional Granger causality relationship from import trade to inbound tourism in the case countries of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. There is a one-way Granger causality relationship between export trade and inbound tourism of Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan.

关 键 词：入境旅游 进出口贸易 中亚 协整分析 GRANGER因果分析 

分 类 号：F592.99[经济管理—旅游管理]