全球业务化海洋预报进展与展望  

Review and Prospect of Global Operational Ocean Forecasting

作　　者：刘娜[1] 王辉[1] 凌铁军[1] 祖子清 Liu Na;Wang Hui;Ling Tiejun;Zu Ziqing(Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2018年第2期131-140,共10页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"两类ENSO对太平洋北赤道流分叉年际变化的影响"(编号:41406013)和"中国周边海域SST日变化及其对区域气候的影响"(编号:41376016)资助~~

摘　　要：海洋环境预报在经济发展和基础设施建设等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用,涉及到海上安全、海洋能源开发与保护、远洋运输和海洋渔业等许多领域和方面。近年来,各国的全球海洋预报取得了显著的进展。全球海洋数据同化实验(GODAE)Ocean View计划为各国提供协调和技术支持,发展并建立全球业务化海洋预报系统,将全球海洋预报的概念实现业务化运行。全球业务化海洋预报系统以海洋动力数值模式作为动力框架,将近实时高质量的观测输入场通过资料同化融入到模式中,实现对全球范围多时空尺度的海洋状况提供未来演替的预测,并对产品表现不间断地进行监测以保证预报服务的质量。简要介绍和回顾GODAE Ocean View所涵盖的全球海洋预报系统的发展历程和现状,并对全球海洋预报未来发展的难点与问题给予展望。The marine environmental forecast plays an increasingly important role in economic growth and in- frastructure development, and touches upon many fields and aspects, including marine security, energy resources development and protection, ocean shipping and fisheries. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment （GODAE） OceanView supports the national research groups providing them with coordination and technical support among the partners. Forecasting centers develop and establish global operational ocean forecast systems. The global operational ocean forecasting system uses the ocean dynamic numerical model as the dynamic framework, and the near real- time high-quality observation input field is integrated into the model by data assimilation to realize the future envi- ronmental forecasts of the marine conditions covering the multi-time scale. The products are routinely validated with observations in order to assess their quality. This paper briefly introduced and reviewed the development process and current situation of the global ocean forecasting system covered by GODAE OceanView, and outlined the future de- velopment of global ocean forecasting.

关 键 词：全球海洋预报 业务化海洋学 海洋数据同化 GODAE OCEAN VIEW 

分 类 号：P731.3[天文地球—海洋科学]