人口因素对城乡居民生活能源碳排放的作用对比研究  

A Comparative Study on the Population Effect of Carbon Emission from Urban and Rural Residents Life Energy

作　　者：刘娟[1] LIU Juan(School of Management, China University of Ming and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第5期14-20,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“空间场视角下的中国能源基地可持续发展评价与优化”(71403268);国家自然科学基金面上项目“多尺度空间视角下城市群的城镇化发展对碳排放的作用机理及其减排路径研究:以长三角为例”(71673270);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“区域低碳发展指数构建及其应用”(14YJCZH146)

摘　　要：文章估算了2009—2013年中国各省份城镇、农村和城乡总体的居民生活能源碳排放量,并运用空间统计与空间计量方法研究了人口相关因素对于城镇、农村不同层面居民生活能源碳排放的作用效应及其差异。结果表明：不同层面的居民生活能源碳排放均具有正的空间相关性;城镇、农村不同层面下,人口因素对居民生活能源碳排放的作用效应存在明显的差异;城镇地区的最终居民人口消费影响最大,弹性系数为0.618 2,人口规模、人口老龄化率、户规模分别具有显著的正向、负向、负向作用,性别比为非显著的正向影响;农村地区的人口规模是最重要的影响因素,其弹性系数为0.609 4,最终居民人口消费具有显著的正向影响,人口老龄化率、性别比、户规模分别是非显著的负向、负向、正向作用。This article estimates carbon emissions of energy fi＇om urban, rural and urban-rural residents in various provinces of China from 2009 to 2013, and then studies the related factors for population effect and the differences between urban and rural residents of different levels of living energy carbon emissions using spatial statistics and spatial econometrics method. The results show that the energy carbon emission of the residents with different living standards has a positive spatial correlation. There are obvious differences in the effect of population factors on the energy carbon emissions of residents living in different levels in urban and rural areas. The consumption of urban residents in the urban area is the largest. The elasticity coefficient is 0.618 2. The scale of population, the aging rate of population and the scale of households have significant positive negative effects. The sex ratio has no significant positive effect. The population size in rural areas is the most important factor, and its elasticity coefficient is 0.609 4. Finally, the consumption of residents has a significant positive impact, and the aging rate, sex ratio and household size are not significant negative, negative and positive effects respectively.

关 键 词：居民生活能源碳排放 人口因素 城乡对比 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]