空气污染对我国粮食安全的冲击——以冬小麦为例  

The Impact of Air Pollution on Food Security in China: Taking Winter Wheat as an Example

作　　者：丁振峰[1] 张良[1] 徐翔[1] DING Zhenfeng;ZHANG Liang;XU Xiang(College of Economy and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210095, China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第5期183-188,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：江苏省农业科技自主创新资金“叶菜(不结球白菜;甘蓝)产业链技术创新与集成应用”[CX(15)1015]

摘　　要：随着中国工业化和城市化进程的迅速推进,煤炭、石油等能源消耗不断增加,空气污染愈加严重,不仅影响居民日常生活、人身健康,且对粮食安全造成了严重的负外部性。在环境外部性理论的基础上,利用2014—2015年99个冬小麦主产区（地级市）的生产及环境数据,通过构建超越对数的冬小麦产量模型,分析空气污染对冬小麦单产的影响。研究发现：空气污染已对我国粮食作物的生产造成巨大威胁,且不同月份南北方空气污染对冬小麦单产影响程度有显著差异。机械动力和地区经济水平对冬小麦单产产生显著的正向影响。基于此,文章提出相应的农业生产和环境政策,以期减少空气污染对粮食生产安全的不利影响。With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization of China, and the increase of consumption of coal, oil and other energy, air pollution becomes more serious. This has not only affected the daily life of residents, personal health, but also has caused serious negative externalities on food security. Based on the environmental externality theory, this paper uses the productive and environmental data of 99 winter wheat production areas from 2014 to 2015 to analyze the impact of air pollution on winter wheat yield, by constructing a logarithmic model and using multiple regressions. The results are as follows： Air pollution has been a great threat to the production of food crops in China, and the impact of air pollution in South and North China on the per unit area yield has been significantly different in different months. Mechanical power and development level of regional economic have a significant positive impact on winter wheat yield. Based on this, the paper puts forward the corresponding policies about agricultural production and environment to alleviate the adverse negative effects of air pollution on food production safety.

关 键 词：空气污染 冬小麦 单产 环境外部性 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]