全面二孩政策下的中国人口年龄结构问题——基于稳定人口理论的思考  

Problems of Population Age Structure under the Two-Children Policy——A Theoretical Thinking Based on the Stable Population Theory

作　　者：张丽萍[1] 王广州[2] ZHANG Li-ping;WANG Guang-zhou(Chinese Academy of Social Science)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院社会学所 [2]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期21-27,共7页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用"项目成果

摘　　要：文章从稳定人口理论的角度,对中国人口年龄结构问题进行探讨,以期对中国人口的生育控制目标进行最基本的历史检验。人口变动的长周期和不可逆决定了人口变化的单向稳定性。研究发现,从1995年开始,中国人口进入快速衰减的时期,与静止人口目标相比减少的幅度在20%以上,而且处于加速衰减的趋势之中。中国人口发展的历史和进程的不同使区域间人口年龄结构差异巨大。出生性别比持续升高打破了人口自然规律所对应的男女比例而加剧人口年龄结构问题,影响粗出生率水平或出生规模。虽然中国通过生育政策调整来不断改善人口年龄结构问题,但出生性别比长期失调和全国人口流动过度聚集在北京、上海的局面也应该引起高度的重视和警惕。在生育意愿不高的条件下,即使对全面二孩政策生育预期估计比较乐观,但中国仍然处于人口快速衰减进程的趋势不变。From the view point of stable population theory,this paper has discussed the population problems of age structure of Chinese population and re-checked the basic target of birth control from the historical opinion. The characteristics of long cycle and un-reversibility of population changes result in the one-way stability. We find that the Chinese population has quickly decreased since 1995. The new birth population size has decreased by 20% compared with the target of stationary population and has the trend of accelerated decreasing. The population age and structure differs in different areas due to the difference of population developing history and process. The continuous increase of sex ratio at birth has not only broken the natural balance law between male and female,causing the population age structure problems,but also affected the crude birth rate and birth population size. Therefore,the fertility policy adjustment can make the population age structure getting better,the long history of imbalance of sex ratio at birth and the accumulation of floating population in Beijing and Shanghai should be taken more concern in future. After a short baby boom of the two-child policy,for the low child desire,the Chinese population is still in the process of fast decrease even under the very optimistic expectation.

关 键 词：稳定人口 年龄结构 基准人口 生育政策 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]