生育政策调整对中国人口红利的影响  

Effects of Fertility Policy Adjustment on China's Demographic Dividend

作　　者：薛君[1] XUE Jun(Henan Normal Universit)

机构地区：[1]河南师范大学社会事业学院

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期39-45,80,共8页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"生育政策调整下目标人群的生育响应研究"(16CRK004);河南省教育厅人文社科项目"河南省生育政策调整下生育响应研究"(2017-ZZJH-250);河南师范大学"二孩政策计划生育服务项目"阶段性成果;河南师范大学教育科学研究基金资助项目

摘　　要：本文基于联合国人口司关于中国2015年分性别1岁年龄组人口数据,在一定的生育水平、死亡水平、迁移水平和出生性别比参数假定下,利用队列分要素法预测2016-2100年生育政策调整对中国人口红利的影响。从分析结果可以看出,生育政策调整下总和生育率的反弹增加了预测期内劳动年龄人口数,缓解了其下降的趋势;从总抚养比波动趋势可以得出,生育政策调整的初期是增加了社会的抚养负担,2057年后才能有效缓解社会的抚养负担,但并不能逆转其上升的趋势;以50%的人口抚养比为测算标准,生育政策调整将使人口窗口期提前4年左右结束;生育政策调整使得2100年总抚养比降低25.65%,将导致经济增长加快3%左右。This paper uses the method of Cohort-Component Project to predict the effect of fertility policy adjustment on China＇s population aging in 2016-2100 under the assumption of fertility level,death level,migration level and sex ratio at birth based on the population data of the United Nations Population Division in2015. According to the analysis results,the rebound of total fertility under the adjustment of fertility policy increases the working-age population and alleviates the trend of declining. According to the trend of the total dependency ratio,the adjustment of fertility policy has been increasing the burden of social support in the early period,and will effectively alleviate the burden of social support after 2057,while it can not reverse its upward trend. With the population support ratio of 50% as the standard,the adjustment of fertility policy will bring the population window period to about 4 years ahead of time. The adjustment of fertility policy will reduce the total dependency ratio by 25.65% in 2100,which will lead to an economic growth of about 3%.

关 键 词：生育政策调整 人口红利 人口总抚养比 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]