财政行为波动影响了外贸失衡吗  

Has Fiscal Policy Volatility Affected Foreign Trade Imbalance

作　　者：张磊[1] 王德祥[1] ZHANG Lei;WANG Dexiang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2018年第4期11-23,共13页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：2013年广东地税局分税制改革项目"分税制财政体制研究"

摘　　要：本文研究了政府财政行为波动对外贸失衡的影响,并选取1996—2015年中国30个省、市、自治区的数据进行检验,研究结果表明:分税制下信息外溢性的标尺效应和政治体制对地方政府行为的影响是导致政府财政行为波动的主要原因,一方面,政府财政行为的波动通过影响储蓄投资缺口导致中国贸易失衡;另一方面,通过对经济和政策环境的影响,破坏了以财税为核心的政府和企业之间双边关系的稳定性和可预期性,阻碍技术创新与产业升级,影响贸易结构,进一步强化了加工贸易竞争优势,从而使中国的对外贸易长期保持巨额顺差。This paper studies the impact of government fiscal policy volatility on foreign trade imbalance and tests the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China（except Tibet） from 1996 to 2015. The results show that the main reasons for the government fiscal policy volatility are the yardstick effect of information spillover arising from tax-sharing system and the political system influence on local government behavior. On one hand, government’s fiscal policy volatility leads to China’s trade imbalance by affecting the savings-investment gap. On the other hand, such volatility destroys the stability and predictability of bilateral finance and taxation relations between the government and enterprises by affecting the economic and policy environment. So it could be an impediment to technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Then it impairs the foreign trade structure optimization and further strengthens the competitive advantage of processing trade, finally leading to China’s long-term huge foreign trade surplus.

关 键 词：支出波动 外贸失衡 储蓄投资缺口 加工贸易 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F812[经济管理—产业经济]