全球价值链视角下中国真实与名义贸易盈余的核算差距:针对亚太主要经济体的分析  

Analysis of the Accounting Gap between China's Real and Nominal Trade Balance with Asia-Pacific Economies from the Perspective of GVC

作　　者：邵军[1] 刘嘉伟 SHAO Jun;LIU Jiawei

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2018年第4期48-59,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"实施自由贸易区战略背景下国际经济波动影响我国经济增长的理论及对策研究"(14CJL020);江苏省政策引导类计划(软科学计划)面上项目"促进江苏科教资源优势转化为创新发展优势的策略研究"(SBR2017039)

摘　　要：基于WIOT世界投入产出表以及Wang等(2017)提出的增加值贸易分解框架,本文计算了中国与亚太主要经济体真实及名义贸易盈余值的核算差距。研究结果显示,中国对亚太主要经济体总体上存在持续的贸易顺差,且名义顺差规模一直高于真实值,样本期内名义顺差中平均约24%属于虚估成分;核算差距最大的贸易对象是美国、韩国与中国台湾,其中对美贸易的名义值显著高估了真实顺差,对韩国与中国台湾贸易的名义值则显著高估了真实逆差;从行业层面来看,核算差距主要源于全球价值链参与度较高的制造业,特别是计算机、电子及电气产品制造业;值得注意的是,近年来中国高端服务业尽管存在名义逆差,但增加值贸易盈余却显示存在顺差且规模不断扩大。在全球价值链的背景下,真实与名义贸易盈余之间的核算差距已成为典型性事实。Based on World Input-Output Table and the decomposition framework proposed by Wang et al.（2017）, this paper calculates the accounting gap between real and nominal trade balance with major Asia-Pacific economies. The result indicates that China’s nominal trade surplus has been largely overestimated, with about 24% of the nominal value being the overestimated components.The most considerable accounting gap exists in the trade with the United States,Korea, and Taiwan region, with nominal surplus significantly overvalued in ChinaUS trade, and nominal deficit substantially exceeds in the trade with the latter.Manufacturing industries, especially those highly involved in Global Value Chain（GVC）, contribute most to the accounting gap. It is noteworthy that, despite a nominal deficit in China’s high-end service export, there is indeed a real and growing surplus from the perspective of value added. In the context of GVC, the accounting gap between real and nominal trade balance has become a stylized fact.

关 键 词：全球价值链 贸易盈余 核算差距 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]