中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究  

THE AGGLOMERATION DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN CHINA: BASED ON SPATIAL EFFECT

作　　者：吴雪萍[1] 赵果庆[1] WU Xue-ping;ZHAO Guo-qing(School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of tZinance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学统计与数学学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《人文地理》2018年第2期130-137,共8页Human Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71563059)

摘　　要：城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。The agglomeration distribution of urban population and the formation of urban belt are a spatial phenomenon, and space forces have an important influence on their formation and evolution. The spatial effect of urban population agglomeration has two main aspects： on the one hand, it is spatial dependency or spatial autocorrelation, that is, the population distribution among different cities can interact with each other; on the other hand, it is spatial heterogeneity which the urban population distribution is affected by the loca- tion facets. Based on the method of spatial econometrics and trend surface analysis, this paper studies spa- tial agglomeration distribution and trend of urban population in China, using the data of urban population, latitude and longitude coordinate of 617 cities at or above the county level in 1998 and 2011. The conclu- sions are as follows： first of all, urban population distribution which is clustered has significant spatial auto- correlation and spatial location correlation in China. Secondly, the population distribution of a city is closely related to the population distribution of neighboring cities in China, and its 6th order space autocorrelation effect is the strongest. Thirdly, there is a significant spatial geography effect in the agglomeration distribution of urban population, and the geographical location has an important impact on the spatial distribution and vertical form formation of urban population system in China. Fourthly, under the effect of spatial autocorrelation and spatial geographical position, the gap of urban population distribution between west and east in China is becoming more and more obvious.

关 键 词：城市人口 集聚分布 空间自相关 空间位置相关 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]