中国电影市场需求的季节效应与最优上映档期选择  

The Seasonal Effects of China's Film Market Demand and the Optimal Choice of Release Schedule

作　　者：杜阳 白仲林 刘雯怡 DU Yang;BAI Zhong lin;LIU Wen yi(Department of Statistics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, Chin)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计系,天津300222

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2018年第5期121-128,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<具有Markov体制转换的动态因子模型建模方法及其应用研究>(71271142);天津财经大学研究生科研资助计划<政府采购招标结构模型的非参数识别与估计>(2016TCB04)

摘　　要：基于中国上映的1 713部影片周数据建立相对市场份额模型,在进一步控制了影片质量、生命周期、网络舆情和同业竞争等影响票房收入季节性因素后,揭示了电影市场需求的潜在季节效应,并发现中国电影市场的信息不对称性与垄断竞争使影片上映"短命化"和电影票房收入"两极分化"。随后,基于电影市场需求估计值的潜在季节性峰值进行档期优化的模拟分析,发现有实力制片商对传统黄金档期的垄断行为弱化了非节假日期间的季节效应,电影厂商的上映档期选择仍存在帕累托改进空间。Based on the weekly data of 1 713 domestic films,this paper establishes the relative market share model,and studies the potential seasonal effect of market demand after stripping the seasonal factors of film revenue,such as film quality,life cycle,network public opinion and competition.We found that China＇s film market information asymmetry and monopolistic competition lead to the film released ＂shortlived＂ and the film box office revenue ＂polarization＂.Subsequently,through the simulation analysis of release optimization based on the peak of film market demand,it is found that the strength of the producers of the traditional gold schedule monopoly weakened the seasonal effects of non-holidays,making the film producers to install the schedule still exists Pareto improvement space.

关 键 词：影片质量内生 潜在季节性 市场份额模型 档期优化 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] J943[艺术—电影电视艺术]