云南省入境旅游客源市场特征与影响因素研究  

Study on Market Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Inbound Tourist Sources in Yunnan Province

作　　者：穆学青 陈亚颦[1] 郭向阳[1] MU Xue - qing;CHEN Ya- pin;GUO Xiang- yang(School of Tourism and Geographical Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, Chin)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2018年第5期681-685,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"边境少数民族在社会空间建构过程中的情感唤醒机制研究"阶段性成果(编号:41561034)

摘　　要：入境旅游是推动区域旅游业发展的重要组成部分。以云南省2006—2015年数据为基础,运用亲景度、吸引力模型、年际波动指数和多元回归模型分别分析了云南省入境旅游客源市场的特征和影响因素。结果发现:(1)时间序列上,2006—2015年新加坡、泰国、英国、法国、德国和意大利属强亲景度类型;空间序列上,2006—2008年和2008—2015年两个时期的波动表现为日本、澳大利亚、新加坡由前期的亲滇度类型后期转入低一层级类型。位次变动呈现出高层级亲滇度类型向低层级类型的跨类型转变,而低层级类型向高层级类型的转入是类型内部位序调整的特点。(2)2006—2011年云南省吸引力逐年上升,说明客源国的偏好增强;2011—2015年云南对客源国的吸引力呈"弓形"态势。(3)通过相关性和多元回归分析可知,进出口贸易总额、人均GDP、旅游产品品位度对入境游客规模具有正相促进关系,旅游距离呈现负向作用。Inbound tourism was an important part of promoting the development of regional tourism. Based on the data of 2006-2015 years in Yunnan,and the characteristics and influencing factors of inbound tourist market in Yunnan Province were analyzed by using affinity degree,attractiveness model,interannual fluctuation index and multiple regression model. The results were as follows：（1）From the time series,in 2006-2015,Singapore,Thailand,Britain,France,Germany and Italy all belonged to the type of strong affinity.From the spatial sequence,the fluctuations in the two periods of 2006-2008 and 2008-2015 showed that Japan,Australia and Singapore were transferred from the early Pro Dian Type to the lower level. Ranking changes showed the high level of Pro Yunnan type to change across the type of lower level types,while the low level to the level of the type was transferred to the characteristics of internal order adjustment.（2）The attractiveness of Yunnan Province increased year by year in 2006-2011,indicating that the preference of the country was enhanced. In 2011-2015,the attraction of the Yunnan team was＂arched＂.（3）Through the correlation and multiple regression analysis,it could see that the total import and export trade,the per capita GDP and the grade of tourism products had a positive relationship with the size of the inbound tourists,and the negative effect of travel distance.

关 键 词：入境客源市场 亲景度 吸引力模型 年际波动指数 影响因素 

分 类 号：F590.84[经济管理—旅游管理]