中欧贸易、投资与欧元区经济增长——基于增加值贸易的门槛效应分析  

Trade, Investment and Euro Zone' s Economic Growth——Based on the Analysis of Threshold Effect of Trade in Value Added

作　　者：杨秋菊 杨权[1] YANG Qiu-ju;YANG Quan

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2018年第4期23-35,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(16BJL091)

摘　　要：文章从贸易增加值角度重新分析欧元区进出口贸易的中国增加值及中欧双边投资对各国人均GDP的影响。门槛效应显示,欧元区对中国的对外直接投资越大、进口贸易的本地增加值越大以及出口贸易的本地增加值越小越有利于本国经济增长。同时,随着失业率的降低和欧元区最终需求产品的本地增加值与中国增加值比值趋于平衡(降低),欧元区最终需求产品的中国增加值对欧元区人均GDP的负向作用有所缓解。研究结论显示,加强中欧经贸合作,尤其是增加对中国出口贸易的增加值对欧洲经济复苏和稳定增长的具有促进作用。This paper analyzes the impact of China＇s value added of the import and export trade in the Euro zone and China -EU bilateral investment on GDP per capita of the countries involved from the perspective of trade in value added. Threshold effect indicates that the increase of Euro zone＇s FDI in China and the local value added of export trade together with the decrease of the local value added of export trade give a hand to the economic development of Euro zone. Meanwhile, with the reduction of unemployment and the balance （decline） of the ratio of the local value added to China＇s value added of the final demand products in the Euro zone, the negative impact of China＇s value added of the final demand products in the Euro zone on GDP per capita in the Euro zone is eased. The study reveals that the strengthening of China-EU economic and trade cooperation, especially the increase of the value added of export trade to China is helpful to the economic recovery and steady growth of Eurone.

关 键 词：贸易增加值 双边投资 门槛效应 贸易平衡 稳定增长 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]