历史性转折还是短暂性波动——对上海户籍人口自然变动由负变正的考察  

Historical Turning or Transient Fluctuation:An Empirical Study about the Natural Change of Household Registered Population in Shanghai

作　　者：陈蓉 顾宝昌[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心,助理研究员博士上海200040 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,教授博士生导师北京100872

出　　处：《探索与争鸣》2018年第4期109-115,共7页Exploration and Free Views

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"我国大城市生育意愿和生育水平变迁趋势研究"(14CRK013);国家社科基金重大项目"我国生育政策调整带来的新社会问题研究"(14ZDB150)

摘　　要：上海的户籍人口自然变动在历经19年的负增长之后,于2012年首次由负变正,并于此后几年保持在零增长左右。这一方向性转变究竟是历史性转折还是短暂性波动,值得深入探讨。2012年以来上海户籍人口自然变动的方向性转变,是由于2004年以来出生数量增多,并多过一直处于小幅平稳增长中的死亡人数的结果。出生数量增多主要是由于一孩出生数增多所致,而一孩出生数增多又主要是由于年龄结构周期性的变动使得育龄妇女人群集中所致。随着育龄妇女人群规模的萎缩,出生数量特别是一孩出生数量增多的现象也将稍纵即逝。因而,这一方向性转变只是一个暂时性的现象,并不能改变上海户籍人口自然变动负增长的长久性趋势。The natural change of the household registered population in Shanghai after experiencing negative growth for 19 years, was turned to positive in 2012, and remained around zero growth in the next few years. Whether this directional change is historical turning point or a short-term fluctuation deserves for examination. The findings show that the natural change of the household registered population in Shanghai turning from negative to positive is the result of an increase in births since 2004, which is more than the deaths that have been in a small and steady growth, and mainly due to the increase in the number of first child births, as the result of the concentration of the women of childbearing age. The changes in the number of women of childbearing age are affected by the periodic fluctuation of the population age structure. With the shrinking of the women of childbearing age, the increase in births, especially the increase in one child births will soon vanish. Therefore, it may conclude that this directional change is only a temporary phenomenon, which cannot change the long-term trend of the negative growth of Shanghai's household registered population.

关 键 词：上海户籍人口 自然变动 负增长 正增长 零增长 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]