我国沿海主要省份热带气旋风雨因子危险性分析Ⅰ:基本值  

ANALYSIS ON HAZARDS OF WIND AND RAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA'S MAJOR COASTAL PROVINCES Ⅰ: BASIC VALUES

作　　者：朱志存 尹宜舟[2] 黄建斌[3] 罗勇[3] ZHU Zhi-cun;YIN Yi-zhou;HUANG Jian-bin;LUO Yong(Pinghu Meteorological Bureau, Zhejiang Province, Pinghu 314201, China;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]平湖市气象局,浙江平湖314201 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2018年第2期145-152,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41505060;41571494);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)共同资助

摘　　要：利用热带气旋最佳路径资料、气象站点风雨资料,结合我国县级热带气旋灾害损失数据,初步分析了我国沿海主要省份热带气旋风雨因子的基本值,包括风雨因子评估起点及权重系数。以过程最大日最大风速(MMW)为风因子,过程雨量(AP)和过程最大日雨量(MP)为雨因子,共挑选出1 563个热带气旋样本,经过统计分析,确定MMW、AP、MP基本值分别为9 m/s、70 mm、50 mm。在此基础上进一步分析了1971—2010年沿海主要省份满足风雨因子基本值条件的热带气旋样本数的分布情况,以及仅由风因子主导、雨因子主导和风雨因子共同主导的样本数及所占比例的空间分布。采用基于致灾程度的客观分析方法来获取风雨因子权重系数以及风雨因子各等级区间的权重系数,以此为下一步分析热带气旋风雨因子危险性特征奠定基础。By using the best track dataset for tropical cyclones（TCs） and the wind and rain data observed at the relevant meteorological stations and combining the county-level economic loss data, this study made a preliminary analysis on the basic values of TCs＇ wind and rain factors in China＇s major coastal provinces,including the starting point for the assessment and weight coefficient. The MMW（maximum of the daily maximum wind speed） was taken as the wind factor, and the AP（accumulative precipitation） and MP（maximum daily precipitation） were taken as the rain factors. A total of 1,563 TC samples were selected.Using statistical analysis, the basic values of the MMW, AP, and MP were determined to be 9 m/s, 70 mm,and 50 mm, respectively. Based on these results, further analysis was made to determine the distribution of the TC samples which met the basic value requirements in China＇s major coastal provinces during the period of 1971 to 2010, and also to determine the number of samples which were dominated by either wind or rain, and both factors, respectively, along with the spatial distribution of their respective proportions.Objective analysis methods based on economic loss were adopted to obtain the weight coefficient of the wind and rain factor and their various grades. Then further study on the hazards characteristics of these factors could be made in the next step. These analysis results can assist in better understanding the wind and rain factor characteristics of TCs in the coastal provinces, and provide necessary references for typhoon-prevention and disaster-mitigation preparation.

关 键 词：热带气旋 灾害损失 风雨因子 防台减灾 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]