云贵高原夏季不同等级极端日降水事件的气候特征  

CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME DAILY PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER YUNNAN-GUIZHOU PLATEAU DURING BOREAL SUMMER

作　　者：夏阳 龙园[1] 任倩 王芬[2,4] 高鹏[1] XIA Yang;LONG yuan;REN Qian;WANG Fen;GAO Peng(Meteorological Bureau of Liupanshui, Liupanshui 553000, China;Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002, China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;Meteorological Office of South Western Guizhou, Xingyi 562400, China)

机构地区：[1]六盘水市气象局,贵州六盘水553000 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002 [3]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610071 [4]黔西南州气象局,贵州兴义562400

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2018年第2期239-249,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合基础[2016]1138号);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-065);贵州省气象局青年科技基金(QN[2016]13号);黔西南州科技局项目(2016-1-15);贵州省科技计划项目黔科合院士站(20144010)共同资助

摘　　要：基于中国气象局国家气象信息中心整编的云贵高原地区81站的1960—2014年夏季(6—8月)日降水资料,利用百分位法得到不同等级的降水阈值来定义相应等级的日降水事件,并对1960—2014年(55 a)云贵高原夏季不同等级的极端日降水事件的气候特征进行分析。结果表明,云贵高原夏季不同等级日降水事件的降水阈值均呈南多北少的分布特征,高值区位于广西南部,最低值则位于云南西北。区域平均的99%、95%、90%和75%分位上的降水阈值分别为19.4 mm、15.5 mm、13.1 mm和9.6 mm。在上述4个等级中,75%分位日降水事件的累积降水量占夏季总降水量百分比最大,95%次之,99%分位占比最少。近55 a来,99%分位和95%分位的极端日降水事件的降水日数呈一定程度的增多趋势,90%分位和75%分位则以减少为主。4个等级的云贵高原区域平均极端日降水事件具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征。此外,云贵高原夏季累积降水量随大范围日降水量的变化曲线近似于左偏态分布,其中5.0~11.8 mm的日降水量带来的降水占全部累积降水的52.9%,对云贵高原夏季降水有重要贡献。Based on the daily precipitation data of 81 stations on Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from National Meteorological Center and by using the percentile method, we obtained the precipitation threshold, defined corresponding extreme precipitation events on different levels, and analyzed the climatic characteristics of summer extreme daily precipitation events over the past 55 years. The results show that the precipitation threshold of summer extreme daily precipitation events on Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is larger in the south than in the north, the high-value area is located in southern Guangxi, and the lowest in the northwest of Yunnan. The precipitation days of 99% and 95% extreme precipitation events increase with a linear trend during the past 55 years, but those of 90% and 75% are reducing. In addition, in the four-level extreme precipitation events, 75% is the maximum of total precipitation amount and the percentage of total precipitation in summer, 95% comes next, which is even more than 90%, and 99% is the least. Regional extreme precipitation events on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau have prominent interannual and interdecadal variations in the past 55 years, and the precipitation threshold of 99%, 95%, 90% and 75% are 19.4 mm,15.5 mm, 13.1 mm and 9.6 mm, respectively. In addition, the curve between accumulated precipitation and precipitation rate on Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in summer is similar to a left-skewed distribution, daily precipitation amount of 5.0 -11.8 mm has an important contribution to the summer precipitation over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, which accounts for 52.9% of all accumulated precipitation.

关 键 词：夏季 云贵高原 极端日降水 气候特征 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]