基于区域海气浪耦合模式的海洋风场预报性能研究  

Application of a regional ocean-atmosphere-wave coupled model on predicted wind field cases in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

作　　者：詹思 齐琳琳[2] 卢伟[1] 孟旭航 ZHAN Si-yu;QI Lin-lin;LU Wei;MENG Xu-hang(School of Meteorology of PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101 China;Meteorological Institute of the Air Force Equipment Academy,Meteorological Center of Air Force,Beijing 100029 China)

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学,江苏南京211101 [2]空军装备研究院航空气象防化研究所,北京100085 [3]空军气象中心,北京100029

出　　处：《海洋预报》2017年第6期16-26,共11页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家“863”计划项目(2012AA091801);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA10010405)

摘　　要：为评估面向海洋风场的耦合模式预报性能,针对西北太平洋海域,基于一次有无台风过程开展了区域海气浪耦合模式的72 h风场预报应用研究,并重点对1 000 m以下低空风预报进行了GPS观测数据的比对检验评估。结果表明:无论是海面10 m风还是1 000 m以下低空风,耦合模式对无台风日的风场预报效果相对更好;有无台风过程的检验评估均显示,海面低空风预报随时间变化趋势与GPS观测的基本一致,且各高度上均是u分量预报效果好于v分量的;针对台风的耦合模式预报需从模式初始场和物理过程参数化等加以发展完善。In order to evaluate the performance of the coupling model faced to the ocean wind field, the application research of a regional ocean-atmosphere-wave coupled model is conducted based on a 72-hour wind field forecasting with a（non-） typhoon process over the northwest Pacific Ocean. The prediction results under1000 meters are evaluated with the GPS observation data. The results show that, the coupled model can predict the ocean wind reasonably in a non-typhoon day whether at 10-meter height or under 1000 meters. The evaluation with/without typhoon process indicates that, the low-level wind forecast trends roughly identical to the GPS observations over time. The forecasting effect of u-components is better that of v-components at any level.Aiming at the coupled model forecasting for typhoon, the initial field and physical process parameters should be improved.

关 键 词：西北太平洋 区域海气浪耦合 海洋风场 

分 类 号：P732.7[天文地球—海洋科学]