基于Multi-Agent的政府干预下虚假舆情传播规律与控制决策  

Propagation Law and Control Decision of False Public Opinion in the Government Intervention Based on Multi-Agent

作　　者：李春发[1] 刘凯 王晟锴[1] Li Chunfa;Liu Kai;Wang Shengkai(School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China;School of Mathematical Sciences, Huaibei Normal University, Huaibei 235000, China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]淮北师范大学数学科学学院,安徽淮北235000

出　　处：《现代情报》2018年第5期53-59,共7页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：天津市艺术科学规划项目"京津冀一体化视角下公共图书馆协同创新发展研究"(项目编号:D16044)

摘　　要：[目的 /意义]为研究政府干预对虚假舆情传播的影响。[方法 /过程]首先,基于个体异质性,将群众进行分类,分析了各类群众之间的状态转移关系;然后,借鉴Bass模型,构建了在政府干预下虚假舆情传播扩散的数学模型;第三,使用Multi-Agent技术构建了群众状态转化逻辑关系来模拟仿真虚假舆情传播的规律;最后,考察了政府干预时间与干预强度对群众行为状态转化的影响。[结论 /结果]经过理论建模和仿真分析验证了本文预测方法的有效性和可行性,将为政府准确把握虚假舆情传播规律、有效防控虚假舆情扩散蔓延提供理论依据。[Purpose/Significance] To research the influence of Propagation of false public opinion under the government intervention. [Method/Procedure] Firstly,based on individual heterogeneity,the masses were classified and the state transition relations among various masses were analyzed. Then,utilizing Bass model,the mathematical model was built for diffusion of false public opinion under intervention of government. Furthermore,the logical relation of mass state transformation was constructed by Multi-Agent technique,which simulated the law of the Propagation of false public opinion. Finally,the influence for state transformation of mass behavior was analyzed through governmental intervention time and intervention intensity. [Conclusion/Result] The prediction method was feasible by theoretical modeling and simulated analysis. The above theory research could make government accurately grasp Propagation law of false public opinion and provide references for government to make related policies

关 键 词：虚假舆情 个体异质性 BASS模型 MULTI-AGENT 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理]