基于偏离份额分析的中国区域间产业转移与污染转移的定量测度  

Quantitative measure on inter-regional industry transfer and pollution transfer based on the idea of shift share analysis

作　　者：成艾华[1] 赵凡 CHENG Ai-hua, ZHAO Fan(School of Economics, Zhongnan University of Nationalities, Wuhan Hubei 430074, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第5期49-57,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中国产业集群地图系统(CCM)建设与应用研究"(批准号:17ZDA055)

摘　　要：当前,在转变经济发展方式的大背景下,跨区域产业转移已成为中国区域政策中促进区域协调发展的重要手段。如何根据中国各区域间产业转移和污染转移的趋势与规律,促进区域产业有序转移与协调发展,是当前需要考虑的一个重要战略问题。本文基于偏离—份额分析法的基本思想,构建改进的区域产业转移与污染转移模型,利用30省市1998—2014年的工业增加值、工业碳排放量、工业COD排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量以及工业SO2排放量等数据,对中国区域间的工业产业转移和污染转移情况进行定量测度。研究结果表明:从时间维度看,1998—2005年,中国的产业主要向东部地区集聚,自2005年开始东部地区向外转移的产业规模不断扩大,而2012年以后东部地区向外转移产业速度趋缓;从转移方向看,中国产业转移没有完全遵循梯度规律逐级转移,出现梯度背离现象,部分产业偏向西部地区;从省级尺度,根据1998—2014年间各省产业转移总量的变化情况来看,中国工业产业转移可以明显分为产业净转出区、产业强转入区、产业弱转入区三类区域。同时在产业转移的进程中,东、中和东北地区除了少数几个省外均为污染净转出区,而西部地区除了四川和重庆外均为污染转入区,已经成为承接污染转移的主要区域,其中,新疆、云南、内蒙古以及青海为高污染转入区。根据以上分析,针对西部地区成为中国的污染避难所这一现象,建议中央政府进一步发挥宏观调控能力,制定科学的产业政策,发挥各地自身优势,合理规划各地重点承接的产业,引导产业有序转移。同时,建立跨区域环境协同治理机制,提升西部地区环境治理能力。In the background of changing the mode of econonfic development, the regional industry transference has become one important method of Chinese regional policies which focused on regional coordinating development. It is an important strategic issue of how to promote industry transference orderly and regional coordinating development fairly based on the trend and law between China＇ s interregional industry transfer and pollution transfer. Based on the basic idea of deviation-share analysis method, this paper constructed an improved model of regional industrial transfer and pollution transfer and used the data of industrial added value, industrial carbon emission, industrial COD emission, industrial solid waste production and industrial SO2 emission in 30 provinces and cities from 1998 to 2014, to quantitatively measure inter-regional industry transfer and pollution transfer from 1998 to 2014. The results suggested ： ①In terms of time dimension, China＇ s industries were mainly concentrated in the eastern region in 1998 -2005. Since 2005, China＇ s eastern region had been expanding its industrial scale to the central and western regions, but the transfer speed had been slowing down since 2012. ②In the direction of transfer, China＇ s industrial transfer did not follow the gradient step by step and the gradient deviates, and some industries preferred western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Siehuan. ③From the provincial level, according to the changes in the total amount of industrial transfer in the provinces from 1998 to 2014, China＇ s industrial transfer could be divided into three categories： the industrial transfer-out zone, the strong industrial transfer-in zone, and the weak industrial transfer-in zone. @At the same time, in the process of industrial transfer, most of provinces and cities in central and eastern China were net transfer-out regions, and most of western provinces had become the main area to carry on the pollution transfer, among which, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Qingh

关 键 词：偏离一份额分析 产业转移 污染转移 定量测度 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]