经济结构调整对人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性的影响差异  

Comparison of economic structure on the coordinated development between population and land urbanization

作　　者：朱高立 邹伟[1] 王雪琪[1] ZHU Gao-li ,ZOU Wei ,WANG Xue-qi(College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210095, Chin)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第5期93-104,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目"土地税收政策对工业企业土地需求影响研究--基于江苏省不同区域的调查"(批准号:17YJA790104)

摘　　要：人口城镇化与土地城镇化是城镇化的核心内容,两者的协调发展水平直接关系到城镇化发展的质量。利用动态修正的协调度模型测算出中国31个省市的人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调度,在此基础上,实证研究了不同类型经济结构对全国及东、中、西三大区域城镇化协调度的影响机制、方向及程度。研究表明:(1)各省市的城镇化协调度虽然呈逐年上升态势,但整体仍然处于较低水平。(2)城镇化协调度演变具有阶段性特征,2007年以前各省市的城镇化协调度增长幅度较小,之后增幅明显加快。(3)城镇化协调度存在空间分异现象,整体上,协调度呈由东向西递减态势。(4)固定资产投资/GDP(投资结构)的提高对城镇化协调度提升的贡献最大,原因可能是固定资产投资可以通过短期的需求效应和长期的供给效应促进人口城镇化与土地城镇化的发展。城乡收入差距(城乡收入分配结构)的拉大则会显著降低城镇化协调性水平,原因可能是城乡收入差距的拉大一方面会使得城镇相对农村拥有更大的吸引力,从而促使农村人口流入城镇寻求收入上的相对均衡;另一方面收入差距的拉大会降低社会的边际消费倾向,从而弱化社会经济活力,阻碍土地城镇化进程,因此需要通过平衡城乡间的资源分配,提高农村地区的人力资本来缩小城乡收入差距。(5)影响东、中、西地区城镇化协调度的关键经济结构因素存在地区差异,其中,固定资产投资/GDP(投资结构)是影响东部地区城镇化协调度最主要的因素;城乡居民储蓄额/GDP(金融结构)对中部和西部地区城镇化协调度的提高均有最大贡献。因此,地方政府在制定城镇化发展政策时应分区域对症下药。Population urbanization and land urbanization are the core content of urbanization, and the coordinated development of the two is directly related to the quality- of urbanization development. Based on a dynamie correction coordination degree model, this study measured the coordination degree between population urbanization and land urbanization of 31 provinces in China, and then researched the effects of different kinds of economic structure on the coordination degree between urbanization. The results indicated that the coordination degree of 31 provinces was low even though they have been increased year by year. The coordination degree d urbanization showed periodic features. Prior to 2007, the growing size of urbanization was small, and after 2007, the growing size accelerated obviously. There was a kind of spatial differentiation in coordination degree ; overall, the coordination degree of urbanization decreased from east to west. The increase of fixed asset investment or GDP nlade the greatest contribution to the improvenlent of coordination degree; the cause might be that the fixed asset investment could promote population urbanization and land urbanization by short-term demand effect and long-term supply effect. The increasing urban-rural income gap could reduce the coordination degree significantly. On the one hand, the increasing income gap made cities more attractive, and this could promote the rural people enter the town to seek the relative balance of income; on the other hand, the income gap could decrease the marginal propensity- to consume, weaken the social and economic vitality- and hinder the land urbanization. It is necessary to narrow the urban-rural income gap by balancing the allocation of resources between urban and rural areas and improving human capital in rural areas. The main economic structure to affect the coordination degree between eastern, central and western regions was different; the fixed asset investment or GDP was the most important factor in eastern region; the savings of urba

关 键 词：经济结构 人口城镇化 土地城镇化 协调发展 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]