中国固定资产投资跨期效应研究  

A Study on Intertemporal Effect of China’s Fixed Assets Investment

作　　者：陈治[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2018年第4期40-47,共8页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“中国创新资源与区域产业结构的空间错配及修正机制研究”(项目编号:16BGL207);山西省高校人文社科重点研究基地项目“山西创新资源空间错配及修正机制研究”(2017322)的资助

摘　　要：本文运用“反事实”分析方法将分行业固定资产投资跨期变动分解为增长变动、排序变动和份额变动,并在此基础上运用全国30个省市（除西藏外）的面板数据分析各种变动对经济增长的跨期影响。结果表明行业投资增长变动和排序变动对经济增长有负效应,行业投资份额变动对经济增长具有显著的正效应。针对不同变动产生的不同效应,本文提出了优化行业固定资产投资结构的政策建议。This paper uses the ＂counterfactual＂ analysis method to decompose the intertemporal changes of investment in fixed assets of sub - industries into growth changes, sorting changes and share changes. Based on this, panel data of 30 provinces （excluding Tibet） were used to analyze the intertemporal impact of various changes on eco- nomic growth. The resuh shows that the changes of industries investment and the change of ranking have a negative effect on economic growth. The changes of industries investment share have a significant positive effect on economic growth. In view of the different effects of different changes, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on optimizing the investment structure of fixed assets in the industries.

关 键 词：行业固定资产投资 投资结构 跨期效应 “反事实”分析 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]