全球经济治理下的人民币区域化问题研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的分析  

A Study on RMB Regionalization under Global Economic Governance Based on Countries along the Belt and Road

作　　者：郭晴 钟华明 陈伟光 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2018年第4期54-67,共14页Macroeconomics

基　　金：广东外语外贸大学贯彻落实习总书记对广东工作重要批示精神专项项目(编号:17Z08);广东省哲学社会科学项目(编号:GDXK201721);广东国际战略研究院招标项目“中美经济外交互动与经贸合作前景研究”(编号:17ZDA19);教育部“创新团队发展计划”滚动支持项目(IRT-17R26)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：共建“一带一路”是中国积极参与全球经济治理,为全球提供公共产品的重要表现。随着共建“一带一路”倡议的不断推进,越来越多的国家加入到“一带一路”建设当中来。作为“一带一路”倡议的发起国,中国的人民币国际化和区域化问题受到广泛关注。本文采用经济冲击相关性理论和SVAR模型,通过理论与实证结合分析“一带一路”背景下的16个经济体,并加上美国和欧元区的数据做比较,研究表明：（1）中国与区域中经济体之间的同周期性最强,人民币最有潜力成为区域货币;（2）中国需要加强同区域大国之间的合作以便实现人民币的区域化;（3）人民币应该首先区域化然后进一步推进到国际化。基于以上研究结论,本文提出了相关的政策建议。Building the Belt and Road Initiative is an important manifestation of China＇ s active participation in global economic governance and the provision of global public goods. With the continu- ous promotion of the ＂ Belt and Road＂ initiative, more and more countries have joined the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative. As the initiator of the ＂ Belt and Road＂ initiative, China＇ s issue of RMB interna- tionalization and regionalization has drawn wide attention. This paper uses economic shock correla- tion theory and SVAR model to analyze 16 econo- mies in the ＂Belt and Road＂ through the combina- tion of theory and evidence, and adds the data of the United States and the Euro area for compari- son. The results show that ： （ 1 ） China has the same cyclicality with regional economies, and the RMB has the most potential to become a regional currency; （2） China needs to strengthen cooperation with major regional powers so as to achieve RMB region- alization ; （3） RMB should first regionalization and then further to internationalization. Based on the above conclusions, this paper put forward the rele- vant policy suggestion.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 人民币区域化 区域货币合作 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]