浙江中西部大雾天气的气候特征及潜势预报方法  

Research on Fog Climatic Features and Potential Forecast Method in the West-Central Part of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：毛程燕 龚理卿 陈江锋 王健疆 李浩文 MAO Cheng-yan;GONG Li-qing;CHEN Jiang-feng;WANG Jian-jzang;LI Hao-wen(Quzhon Meteorological Bureau, Quzhou, Zhejiang 324000;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275)

机构地区：[1]衢州市气象局,浙江衢州324000 [2]中山大学大气科学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《广东气象》2018年第2期10-13,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省气象科技青年项目(2016QN09)

摘　　要：利用2010—2017年逐日雾观测数据、地面常规气象资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料和ECMWF细网格模式预报资料,采用统计法分析了浙江省中西部地区(27°N—30.0°N,118°E—121°E)雾日的时空分布特征,再通过相关性检验精选出物理因子,用逐步回归法建立雾的潜势预报模型。结果表明:(1)雾出现频率最高的区域是山区,时段是11月至次年4月、夜间至次日10:00;(2)通过精选的预报因子和提取的消空指标,确定的浙江省中西部地区冬半年雾日预报的多元回归方程,与实况拟合率为80.8%,回报检验的正确率、空报率、漏报率和TS评分分别为86.4%、39.0%、32.0%和0.47;(3)基于ECMWF细网格模式预报产品,每天可自动生成逐3 h雾预报产品并投入业务应用。Based on the daily fog weather data, conventional observed meteorological data, NCEP/ NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data during 2010--2017 and three-hourly ECMWF numerical forecast grid field products, the temporal and spatial distributions of fog were analyzed with statistical method in the west- central part of Zhejiang province and a potential forecast model of fog was built by optimal subsets. The re- suits showed that fog frequency was higher in mountainous area than over flat land, and the centralized time was from November to April of the following year and 21：00 to 10：00 of the subsequent day. The factors were selected through correlation verification, and thresholds and negative indexes were determined by a cu- mulative frequency method, and eventually a multi-regression equation was confirmed. The fitting rate of forecasting in the winter-half year was 80. 8% and the accuracy rate, false rate, failure rate and threat score were 86. 4% , 39.0% , 32.0% and 0. 47 respectively. Based on ECMWF numerical model products, pre- diction products will be automatically generated every 3 hours. Therefore, the model will not only be easy to quantify forecasts, but also make forecasting objective and automatic in the application in forecasting fog po- tential.

关 键 词：天气预报方法 大雾 气候特征 潜势预报 浙江中西部 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]