2008～2015年福建省手足口病流行病学及气象因素影响分析  

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics and meteorological influencing factors of hand-foot-mouth disease,Fujian province,2008-2015

作　　者：叶雯婧[1,2] 章灿明 陈彩粼[1,2] 杨林 吴生根[1,2] 陈武 欧剑鸣[1,2] 洪荣涛[1,2] YE Wen-jing;ZH ANG Can-ming;CHEN Cai-lin;YANG Lin;WU Sheng-gen;CHEN Wu;OU Jian-ming;HONG Rong tao(Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Fuzhou, Fujian, 350001, China)

机构地区：[1]福建省疾病预防控制中心应急科,福建福州350001 [2]福建省人兽共患病重点实验室,福建福州350001 [3]福建省气候中心,福建福州350001

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2018年第1期4-9,共6页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2016J01348)

摘　　要：目的分析福建省手足口病时空流行情况,探讨气象因素对福建省手足口病疫情的影响。方法收集福建省2008~2015年手足口病监测资料及同期气象数据,采用描述性流行病学分析手足口病疫情概况,建立面板数据模型,分析平均气温、平均降雨量对手足口病疫情的影响。结果 2008~2015年全省共报告手足口病514 994例,死亡94例。平均发病率为170.29/10万,平均死亡率为0.03/10万,累计病死率为0.18‰,年平均递增率为396.69%,各设区市年均发病率、累计病死率和累计重症率差异均有统计学意义(P<0.01)。年均发病率居首的为宁德市(235.23/10万),累计病死率居首的为南平市(0.43‰),累计重症率居首的为福州市(14.59‰),各设区市病原构成差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。疫情呈现双高峰,第一个高峰出现4~7月,第二个高峰出现在9~10月。面板数据模型采用随机效应模型,发病率随着气温和降雨量的上升而上升,气温和降雨量可解释手足口病发病率变化的14.40%,其中降雨量对福建手足口病发病率的影响更为重要,回归系数为0.07。结论福建省手足口病疫情存在时空差异性,利用面板数据模型分析气象因素的影响更为合理,平均气温和降雨量对手足口病发病率均有正向影响,且平均降雨量的影响更为重要。Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics and meteorological influence of hand, foot,and mouth disease （HFMD） in Fujian province. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used on the surveillance data of HFMD according to the internet-based surveillance reporting, panel data model was used in the study of relationship of meteorological and HFMD. Results Totally 514 994 HFMD cases were reported in Fujian province,2008 2015,including 94 deaths. The average annual incidence was 170.29/100. The average mortality rate was 0.03/105 and the cumulative case fatality rate was 0.18‰ ,The average annual increase rate was 396.69%. There was a statistically significant difference in annual average incidence rate,cumulative mortality rate,and cumulative severe rate in each city （ P〈0.01） ,the incidence of Ningde city was the highest （235.23/105） ,the rate of cumulative mortality of Nanping （0.43‰） was highest, and the cumulative disease rate of Fuzhou （14. 59‰） was highest. The composition of pathogens in each city with district was significantly different （ P 〈0.01）. The incidence peaks were observed during April to July and September to October. The panel data model adopted a random effects model. The incidence increased with the increase of temperature and rainfall. Temperature and rainfall can explain 14.40% of the change in the incidence of hand-foot-mouth,and the impact of rainfall on the incidence of foot and mouth was even more important. The regression coefficient was 0.07. Conclusion There is spatial and temporal differences of the hand-foot-mouth epidemic in Fujian province,the use of panel data model to analyze the impact of meteorological factors is more reasonable,the average temperature and rainfall have a positive impact on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease,and the impact of the average rainfall is more important.

关 键 词：手足口病 气温 降水量 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]