生产者补贴政策与农户种植结构调整——基于“镰刀弯”地区农户的模拟分析  

Producer Subsidies and Planting Structure Adjustment——Based on Simulation Analysis of Farmer Households in “Sickle Bend” Regions

作　　者：田聪颖[1] 肖海峰[1] TIAN Cong-ying;XIAO Hai-feng(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期132-140,共9页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：农业部和财政部项目"国家现代农业产业技术体系产业经济研究"(CARS-39-22)

摘　　要：基于东北"镰刀弯"地区农户的调研数据,采用实证数学规划方法,通过构建农户家庭生产行为模型,模拟研究玉米、大豆生产者补贴政策对农户种植结构调整行为的影响。研究结果表明:现行生产者补贴在一定程度上可引导农户调减玉米、增种大豆,但补贴政策具有一定局限性,若要维持或进一步促进种植结构调整,需持续提高大豆生产者补贴标准。一旦放缓或停止政策干预,种植结构将可能出现反复,甚至反弹。为持续稳定地促进并巩固"镰刀弯"地区种植结构调整,建议通过实现国产大豆优质优价、完善大豆生产的基础设施建设及技术支撑等措施形成市场与政策协调作用的格局。Based on farmer households survey in the＂sickle bend＂regions of Northeast China,a model of farmer household＇s behavior is conducted to simulate the impact of corn and soybean producer subsidies on planting structure adjustment behavior of typical farmer households under different scenarios using PMP model.The results show that the current producer subsidies are helpful to guide farmer households to reduce corn production and increase soybean production to some extent. However,the policy has some limitations. It is necessary to increase the subsidy standard for soybean in order to maintain the effect of the policy. In order to promote and consolidate the planting structure adjustment,suggestions are proposed that the coordination of market and policy can be achieved through the realization of high quality and high price of domestic soybean,infrastructure construction and technical support of soybean production.

关 键 词：生产者补贴 种植结构调整 镰刀弯 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]