新疆电力供需预测及电能消纳有效途径研究  

Research on Electricity Supply and Demand Forecasting and Efficient Path of Electricity Consumption in Xinjiang

作　　者：郭森[1] 崔永军 贾浩 赵名锐 王玉玮[1] 赵会茹[1] 任义生 GUO Sen;CUI Yongjun;JIA Hao;ZHAO Mingrui;WANG Yuwei;ZHAO Huiru;REN Yisheng(School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Company, Urumchi 830002, China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网新疆电力公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国电力》2018年第5期147-153,共7页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373076);国网新疆电力公司项目(SGXJ0000BGJS1600358)~~

摘　　要：对新疆全社会用电量的供给与需求进行科学合理预测分析,并提出电能消纳的有效途径,不仅能够为疆内电网的规划及运维提供参考,而且对电源建设和电能消纳政策制定具有重要意义,可以促进地区电网的可持续发展。首先对新疆2017—2030年电力需求进行了多情景预测分析,得出2030年新疆全社会用电量预计在2 823亿~3 839亿k W·h;其次,对新疆未来电力供给情况进行分析,对比得到新疆"十三五"期间将面临电力供给远大于需求的发展态势;最后提出:推进"疆电外送"通道建设、建设坚强的疆内750 k V骨干网架和扎实落实"电气化新疆"战略是解决新疆电力产能过剩现象的有效途径。Scientific and reasonable forecasting on the supply and demand of the whole society power consumption in Xinjiangcannot only provide a reference for power grid planning and operation, but also is of great significance to the policy making forpower source construction and electricity consumption and to the sustainable development of regional power grid. Firstly, this paperforecasts the electricity demand of Xinjiang under several scenarios from 2017 to 2030, and it is concluded that the whole societyelectricity consumption in Xinjiang in 2030 will reach 282.3 billion kW·h to 383.9 billion kW·h. And then, an analysis is made onthe prospective power supply in Xinjiang, and it is concluded that Xinjiang will face the problem of power supply significantlyexceeding the demand during the period of 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-2020）. Finally, it is proposed that promoting the constructionof outgoing channel of Xinjiang’s electricity, building strong 750 kV backbone power grid and implementing the strategy of Xinjiangelectrification are the main efficient paths for the solution to the power overproduction in Xinjiang.This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.71373076） and State Grid XinJiang Electric PowerCompany Project （No.SGXJ0000BGJS1600358）.

关 键 词：电力需求 电力供给 产能过剩 电化新疆 特高压建设 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]