基于短时强降水特征的北京暴雨蓝色预警指标研究  

A Study on the Blue Rainstorm Warning Index Based on Characteristics of Short-Period Heavy Rainfall in Beijing

作　　者：李林[1,2] 张子曰 范雪波 张玮 韦涛 张治国 孙雪琪 LI Lin1, 2, ZHANG Ziyue3, FAN Xuebo2, ZHANG Wei3, WEI Tao2, ZHANG Zhiguo2, and SUN Xueqi2（1 Institute of Urban Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089 2 Beijing Municipal Meteorological Observation Center, Beijing 100089 3 Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089）

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]北京市气象探测中心,北京100089 [3]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2018年第3期268-274,共7页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金8172050;中央级公益性科研院所专项IUMKY201732;北京市科技计划Z161100004516018~~

摘　　要：选取北京2013~2015年6~9月共362个自动气象站的逐分钟降雨资料进行统计,分析北京夏季短时强降水的特征,并进行蓝色暴雨预警指标的选取。结果表明:1)蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本中的5 min、10 min最大降水量约为其它降雨样本的5倍,而蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本中在达到预警标准后有5 min、10 min的最大雨强也有显著降低;2)资料中有63.0%的蓝色暴雨预警降雨样本达到预警的时间不超过60 min,18:00(北京时间,下同)至01:00的蓝色预警降雨样本占全部蓝色预警降雨样本的60%;3)分钟雨强统计在暴雨蓝色预警中可有较好的提前指示作用,如当5 min降水量达到7.7 mm发出预警,则有关提前时效为16.7 min,HSS评分可达0.503。Based on minute rainfall data collected at 362 automatic weather stations from June to September between 2013 and 2015 in Beijing, the authors analyze the characteristics of short-period heavy rainfall in summer, and propose a blue rainstorm warning（BRW） index. The analysis suggests that： 1） The maximum rainfall intensities in 5 minutes and 10 minutes in BRW events（events that meet the BRW criterion） are about five times that in other events, and the rainfall intensity decreases significantly after reaching the BRW criterion. 2） 63.0% of the total BRW events that meet the criterion last no more than 60 min after the rain begins, and the BRW events that start during 1800 LST to 0100 LST count for 60% of the total BRW events. 3） High minute-rainfall intensity can be a good index for BRW. If a BRW is issued when 5-minute rainfall reaches 7.7 mm, the lead time will be 16.7 min and the HSS score can be up to 0.503.

关 键 词：强降水 自动气象站 暴雨 预警指标 

分 类 号：P456.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]