玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计——以吉林省为例  

Insurance product design based on maize drought weather index: A case study in Jilin province

作　　者：曲思邈[1] 王冬妮[1] 郭春明[1] 杨旭[1,2] 王美玉 邱美娟[1] QU Si-miao1, WANG Dong-ni1, GUO Chun-ming1,YANG Xu1,2 ,WANG Mei-yu3, QIU Mei-jua1(1. Institute of Meteorological Science in Jilin Province,Changchun 130062 ,China; 2. Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, People＇s Liberation Army University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; 3. Jilin Provincial Meteorological Service,Changchun 130062,Chin)

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林长春130062 [2]中国人民解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101 [3]吉林省气象局,吉林长春130062

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第2期92-99,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：吉林省气象局青年基金课题(2015017);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206018)共同资助

摘　　要：设计吉林省玉米干旱天气指数保险产品,是对吉林省传统农业保险的有益补充,对转移吉林省干旱风险和保障吉林省农业经济健康发展具有重大意义。利用1981—2014年吉林省玉米发育期观测资料、气象观测资料及玉米产量资料,采用基于Weibull分布模型的参数化产量风险分析方法,厘定纯保费率并分析其空间分布,建立吉林省玉米干旱保险天气指数模型,同时设计了基于不同免赔额的保险产品。结果表明:吉林省玉米单产风险分布和纯保费率可以采用Weibull分布模型进行有效模拟及厘定;纯保费率的高值区主要分布在吉林省西部地区,适合高免赔额费率;纯保费率的低值区主要分布在吉林省东南部地区,适合低免赔额费率,实现了保险产品的地区差异性,与吉林省玉米生产的实际情况符合。基于不同免赔额设计吉林省玉米干旱天气指数保险产品,当免赔额分别为10%、15%和20%时,对应启动赔付的玉米干旱天气指数Id分别为14.25、30.15和46.06。The insurance product design based on maize drought weather index is a beneficial supplement to tradi- tional agriculture insurance, which is important for transferring drought risk and ensuring the development of Jilin province＇s economy. In order to establish the drought weather index insurance model of maize, the long sequential developmental phase data of maize, meteorological data and maize yield data from 1981 to 2014 were collected Then pricing pure premium rate determined by the parametric yield risk analysis method based on Weibull distribu- tion model and its spatial distribution were analyzed in this paper. Finally, maize drought weather index model was established and the insurance product based on different deductible excesses was designed. The results show that maize yield risk distribution in Jilin province could be simulated using the Weibull distribution model. Besides, the Weibull distribution model could also be used for pricing pure premium rate. The western of Jilin province is the region with high pure premium rate and is suitable for the high deductible rate. Whereas, the southeast of Jilin Province is the region with low pure premium rate, and is suitable for the low deductible rate. The pricing of the maize drought pure premium rate is consistent with the reality of maize planting in Jilin province, which could re- flect the regional differences in Jilin province. The insurance product based on maize drought weather index is de- signed with the different deductible excess rate. The compensation starting values of weather index are 14.25, 30.15 and 46.06 when the deductible rates are 10% ,15% ,and 20% ,respectively .

关 键 词：玉米干旱 天气指数 Weibull模型 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S513[农业科学—作物学]