中国旅游专业化与经济增长关系研究  

On the Relationship between the Specialization of China's Tourism and Economic Growth

作　　者：何昭丽[1,2] 张振龙 孙慧 HE Zhao-li;ZHANG Zhen-Long;SUN Hui(School of Tourism Studies, Xinjiang University;Center for Innovation Management Research ofXinjiang, Xinjiang University;School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi Xinjiang 830046)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学旅游学院 [2]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心 [3]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《新疆师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第3期151-160,共10页Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"旅游专业化水平测度及其与区域经济增长关系的研究--以新疆为例"(41461114);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目"新疆旅游发展多维效益评价及提升研究"(2016D01C076);新疆社科基金"新疆南疆旅游‘精准扶贫’研究"(2016BGL104);新疆大学博士启动基金"新疆旅游专业化‘适度性’研究"(BS150131)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文本采用面板模型对1999-2015年中国旅游专业化与经济增长关系进行估计。研究发现:中国旅游专业化与经济增长规模、速度都呈现一种倒U型的曲线关系;旅游专业化与经济增长之间的关系存在拐点值,当旅游专业化程度小于拐点值时,旅游专业化提高对经济增长的净效应为祝福效应;当旅游专业化程度超过拐点值时,旅游专业化提高对经济增长的净效应为诅咒效应。旅游专业化在增长速度模型中的拐点值要小于在经济增长规模模型中对应的拐点值;各经济要素作为控制变量加入模型,使拐点值有不同程度的变化,旅游专业化与经济增长的关系受到各要素的协同影响。The panel model method is used to estimate the relationship between tourism specialization and economic growth in China during 1999-2015. The results show that there is an inverted U curve relationship between tourism specialization and economic growth scale, economic growth rate in China.There is an inflection point of the relationship between tourism specialization and economic growth.when the degree of tourism specialization is less than the inflection point value, improving tourism specialization plays an blessing effect on economic growth.When the degree of tourism specialization is bigger than the inflection point value, improving tourism specialization plays an curse effect on economic growth.The inflection point value of tourism specialization in the growth speed model is less than the inflection point value in the model of economic growth scale.Taking economic factors as the control variable, adding to the model, the inflection point will change.The result shows that the relationship between tourism specialization and economic growth is affected by all factors.

关 键 词：旅游专业化 经济增长 资源转移效应 资源诅咒 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]