基于中国林业产业预警模型的木材供需仿真研究  

Simulation Study on Timber Supply and Demand Based on Forewarning Model of Forestry Industry in China

作　　者：刁钢[1] 麻坤 赵荣[3] 仇晓璐 Diao Gang;Ma Kun;Zhao Rong;Qiu Xiaolu(Business School, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000;School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018;Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学商学院,保定071000 [2]河北科技大学经济管理学院,石家庄050018 [3]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《林业经济》2018年第4期33-38,共6页Forestry Economics

基　　金：中国林科院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“全面天保后中国木材供给策略研究”(编号:CAFYBB2017MC002)

摘　　要：在“十三五”时期，中国经济发展进人新常态、生态文明建设步伐加快以及全面禁止天然林商业性采伐政策的实施，中国森林资源与木材供需的变化趋势更加不确定。利用中国林业产业预警模型分析了在经济新常态下中国木材供需变化的趋势。预测结果说明，2020年中国木材的需求约7．6亿m^3，中国木材的供给来源结构为：国产原木占15％，废弃木质材料占30％，采伐剩余物占42％，木质林产品的净进口占13％。木材对外依存度到2020年下降到24％。因此，木材供给安全趋于好转，但资源型木质林产品的对外依存度依然较高。During the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the economic development in China has entered a new era with the fast- growing pace of eco- civilization construction as well as the implementation of comprehensive halt logging policy on nature forests for the commercial use. Therefore, the trends of both forest resources and tim- ber supply and demand remain more and more unstable and unclear. The study analyzed the trends of timber sup- ply and demand in China under new state of the economy development based on the forewarning model of forest- ry industry in China. The forecast result has shown that the demand for timber in China is about 760 million cubic meters in 2020, also the structure of the supply sources of timber in China goes to that the domestic logs account for 15%, waste timber materials account for 30%, harvesting residues account for 42%, and net imports of woody forest products account for 13%. Moreover, dependence on imported timber will be declined to 24% by 2020. As a result, the security of timber supply and demand tends to be improved. However, dependence on resource-based woody forest products remains relatively high.

关 键 词：林业产业预警模型 供需预测 木材供需变化趋势 

分 类 号：F307.24[经济管理—产业经济]