新疆伊犁州艾滋病流行预测分析  

Prediction analysis of AIDS epidemic in Ili prefecture of Xinjiang

作　　者：陈学玲[1] 马媛媛[1] 胡晓远[1] 陈晶[1] 倪明健[1] CHEN Xue-ling;MA Yuan-yuan;HU Xiao-yuan;CHEN Jing;NI Ming-jian(The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, Chin)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《疾病预防控制通报》2018年第2期1-4,共4页Bulletin of Disease Control & Prevention(China)

基　　金："艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治"科技重大专项(2013ZX10004907);新疆维吾尔自治区科技支撑计划(201433107)

摘　　要：目的了解新疆伊犁哈萨克自治州(简称伊犁州)艾滋病流行模式及发展趋势,开展模型预测分析,为当地防控措施的制定及政府决策提供依据。方法收集模型预测所需数据及相关参数信息录入搭载有EPP模型的Spectrum软件开展预测分析,利用既往监测及专题调查数据判断并调整预测结果,直至获得研究者认为可信的预测结果为止。结果伊犁州艾滋病传播模式最早由吸毒人群引入,通过吸毒人群及桥梁人群进入其他男性和其他女性群体,并逐步经感染者传播给其性伴及配偶群体,当地疫情主要由吸毒人群、感染者性伴及配偶、其他男性、其他女性群体逐步累积导致,整体人群在经历了疾病传播的高峰期后逐步趋于稳定;模型显示当地15~49岁人群中新发感染人数由2000年的2 000余例降至2011年的1 040例,并逐步稳定在目前的每年500例左右,目前该人群中现存感染人数约1.3万人,人群感染率约8‰。结论自90年代早期开始伊犁州艾滋病流行并快速进入疾病暴发期,1997—2011年为HIV新感染人数最多时期,其中1996—2000年为疾病的快速增长期,2007—2012年为疾病的快速递减期,自2013年后疾病的传播进入相对稳定期;总体显示,伊犁州经过多年开展的各类综合干预措施,当地人群内疾病传播已基本得到有效控制,疫情渐趋平稳。Objective To conduct model prediction analysis for knowing epidemic pattern and development trend of AIDS in Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture（short for Ili prevecture）of Xinjiang,to provide basis for formulating control measures and policies by the local government.Methods The relevant data and parameter information for model prediction were collected and imported into EPP（Estimation and Projection Package）and Spectrum model.The prediction outcomes were judged and adjusted on basis of the data of annual surveillance and special investigation till the rational prediction results were obtained.Results The local epidemical model showed that AIDS was introduced by addicts to drug taking at first,then accessed to common population through bridge groups,gradually transmitted to sexual partners and spouses by the infectors.Drug addicts,sexual partners of positive people,other male and female group were contributed to the most part of local epidemic.General population passed the peak of epidemic and became stable.The results showed that the new cases among people at the age of 15-49 years reduced from over 2 000 cases in 2000 to 1 040 in 2011 and stabilized gradually around 500cases in recent years.It was estimated that about 13 000 cases were alive in the local area,with the infection rate about 8‰.ConclusionsHIV epidemic started in Ili prefecture in the early 1990＇s and quickly entered into the outbreak period.The most new cases occurred from 1997 to 2011,with the period of rapid growth during 1996-2000.From 2007 to 2012,the case numbers decreased rapidly,and then became stable since 2013.Generally,the local epidemic has been controlled effectively by developing comprehensive prevention strategies for many years.

关 键 词：艾滋病 数学模型 预测 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]