基于全国建立碳市场的企业多周期生产决策研究  

Dynamic Decision-making under Policy of China Carbon Market

作　　者：兰梓睿 靖富营[2] 孙振清[1] LAN Zi-rui;JING Fu-ying;SUN Zhen-qing(School of Management and Economics, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222;School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津300222 [2]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054

出　　处：《软科学》2018年第5期72-74,85,共4页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AGL002);天津市哲学社会科学联合会重大应急项目(TJZD16-032)

摘　　要：分析了碳市场政策建立背景下企业动态批量决策的预测时阈问题,构建了碳排放限额与碳交易约束下的成本最小化模型并转化为相应的网络流问题,得出了最优解的特性,进而构造再生集且设计出前向动态规划算法寻找预测时阈。通过计算以及算例,分析了全国建立碳市场政策约束下影响预测时阈的各个因素,得出碳市场政策会增加高碳企业预测时阈等结论。This paper analyzes the dynamic lot-size problem and forecast horizon under the policy of carbon market and builds the models of minimal cost of the limited carbon emission and emission trading and transform the corresponding problem of network flow. And then, it obtains some necessary conditions on the optimal solution a T-period problem, which enables us to establish a highly efficient Forward Algorithm to evaluate forecast horizon and the corresponding decision horizon. Finally, it analyzes various factors affecting forecast horizon under the policy of carbon market through calculation and numerical example. It puts forward some conclusions, such as the policy of carbon market making forecast horizon and forecasting cost increase.

关 键 词：碳市场 碳排放 预测时阈 动态批量 前向算法 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F272