甘肃河东地区小麦条锈病越冬气候适宜性研究  

Overwintering Climate Suitability of Wheat Stripe Rust in Hedong of Gansu

作　　者：许彦平[1] 万信[2] 姚晓红[1] 贾建英[2] 王文辉 Xu Yanping;Wan Xin;Yao Xiaohong;Jia Jianying;Wang Wenhui(Tianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui Gansu 741000;Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水741000 [2]西北区域气候中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2018年第12期142-145,共4页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：行业(气象)科研专项"小麦条锈病发病的气象成因及气象指标研究"(GYHY201406036)

摘　　要：随全球性气候变暖和小麦感病品种的不断优化,对目前仍沿用20世纪60年代的越冬气象指标(冬季最冷月平均气温-6^-8℃),需要重新修订完善。利用2001—2016年甘肃河东地区14县(区)64个小麦条锈病春季病情指数样本资料和38个病田率资料,以冬季12—2月2、3、4~15天滑动平均气温最小值分布区间确定冬季最冷时段,采用逐步回归统计方法建立基于小麦条锈病病情指数和病田率的越冬气象条件统计模型。综合两种方法统计结果,得出甘肃河东地区小麦适宜越冬的温度指标为冬季最冷时段7天滑动平均气温-9^-10℃以上,同时前期降水量越多、最冷时段空气相对湿度越大,适宜的温度值越低。研究为当地准确发布中短期趋势预报,积极开展早期防治,控制病害流行程度具有指导意义。With the global climate warming and the continuous optimization of wheat susceptible varieties, theoverwintering meteorological indicators of the 1960 s（the coldest average temperature in winter is-6--8℃）need to be revised. Based on the data of 64 disease indices and 38 disease field rates of 14 counties in Hedongof Gansu Province from 2001 to 2016, the most cold winter period was determined by the minimum meandistribution of 2, 3, 4-15 days sliding mean temperature from December to February, and the overwinteringmeteorological condition statistical models were established by stepwise regression method based on diseaseindex and disease rate of wheat stripe rust. Based on the results of the two methods, the suitable temperatureindex of overwintering wheat stripe rust in the region was above-9--10℃ of 7 days sliding mean temperaturein the coldest period. The more the antecedent precipitation, the higher the air relative humidity in the coldestperiod, and the lower the suitable temperature was. The study has certain guiding significance on accuratemedium-short term trend forecast, and early prevention and control of the disease epidemic.

关 键 词：甘肃 河东 条锈病 越冬气候 适宜性 

分 类 号：S165.28[农业科学—农业气象学]