我国外贸商品结构对集装箱生成的影响研究  

Study on the influence of foreign trade commodity structure on container generation in China

作　　者：马瑜[1] 栾维新[1] 张睿[1] 王辉[1] MA Yu;LUAN Weixin;ZHANG Rui;WANG Hui(Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, Liaoning 116026, China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国科技论文》2018年第7期781-785,共5页China Sciencepaper

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDB131);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132016305;3132016035)

摘　　要：从适箱商品识别和按生产投入要素分类两个维度对外贸商品结构进行划分,并运用岭回归模型,研究适箱商品外贸结构对出口集装箱和进口集装箱生成的影响。结果表明:中国集装箱运输的商品中,劳动力密集型、资本和技术密集型商品占比在95%以上;无论出口还是进口,在对集装箱生成的影响程度上,资本和技术密集型商品>劳动力密集型商品>资源密集型商品,在单位产值集装箱生成系数上结果正好相反。中国集装箱吞吐量增长将进入中低速增长的阶段,我国集装箱港口和运力布局要充分关注这一趋势,避免造成产能过剩和港口间不合理竞争。The Chinese foreign trade commodity structure from dimensions of containerized cargo identification and production input factors were first categorized.Then the effects of containerized cargo＇s foreign trade commodity structure on the import and export container generation by using ridge regression model were analyzed.Results showed that labor-intensive products,capital and technology intensive products account for more than 95% of Chinese container transportation.For the effects on container generation,capital and technology intensive products have a larger effect than on labor-intensive products,which has a larger effect than on resource-intensive products for both import and export cargos.However,the effects on unit output value for container generation index was just the opposite.China＇s container throughput growth will enter the stage of low growth.This trend should be paid full attention when considering the layout of China＇s container ports and transportation capacity,which will avoid overcapacity and unfair competition between ports.

关 键 词：适箱商品 外贸商品结构 集装箱生成 岭回归 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济] F760