日本南海海沟潜在地震海啸对中国东部沿海影响的数值模拟研究  

Numerical Study on the Impact of Potential Earthquake Along the Nankai Trough on Eastern Coastal Area of China

作　　者：黄强 景惠敏[1] 胡培 HUANG Qiang;JING Hui-min;HU Pei(College of Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学机械工程与力学学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《海洋科学进展》2018年第2期206-215,共10页Advances in Marine Science

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目--地震海啸上岸过程的数值模拟研究(41304072)

摘　　要：2011-03-11日本东北部地震海啸发生后,围绕日本南海海沟发生潜在9级地震的可能性也进一步增大。采用高精度高分辨率有限体积浅水波数值模型GeoClaw对日本东北大地震海啸的产生、传播过程进行数值模拟研究,模拟结果对比海上浮标观测数据及中国东部沿海验潮站记录数据可知首波波峰偏差小于10%,表明模型GeoClaw可以很好地模拟海啸在大洋中及东海大陆架的传播过程。利用模型GeoClaw对日本南海海沟9级地震断层模型进行海啸数值模拟研究。研究表明,地震引发的海啸波能量巨大,同时向各个方向传播。地震发生5h后海啸波到达中国东部福建沿海地区,进而影响浙江、上海、江苏等沿海地区,海啸波高可达到1 m以上。鉴于日本南海海沟大地震发生的历史性规律及对中国东部沿海地区造成的潜在灾害,需要对其进行相应的数值模拟研究。Probability of the occurrence of magnitude 9 earthquake along the Nankai Trough increases significantly after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.Utilizing the shallow water numerical model GeoClaw with high-resolution finite volume method,we simulated the generation and propagation of the tsunami event caused by the Tohoku-Oki earthquake occurred on March 11,2011.The results show that the first wave peak deviation is less than 10% compared with buoy observation and tide gauge data collected in China eastern coastal region,suggesting the GeoClaw can well reproduce the propagation of the tsunami in deep ocean and continental shelf region of the East China Sea.The GeoClaw model is further used to simulate the tsunami induced by a magnitude 9 earthquake of fault model in the Nankai Trough.It indicates that the tsunami wave energy is powerful and travels in all directions and the waves arrive at Fujian coastal areas in about 5 hours,then affect Zhejiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu and other coastal areas,with tsunami wave height of more than 1 m.Considering the frequent occurrence of earthquake in the Nankai Trough and huge potential damage to the eastern coastal area of China that may be caused by tsunami,further numerical simulations are necessary for studying the impacts of the earthquake along the Nankai Trough.

关 键 词：地震海啸 日本南海海沟 模型GeoClaw 数值模拟 潜在灾害 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]