基于时空分析模型的城市房地产政策区域扩散效应  

The Regional Diffusion Effect of Urban Real Estate Policy Based on Spatial and Temporal Analysis Model

作　　者：李祥飞[1,2] 凯斯.布尔斯马 LI Xiang-fei1,2 , Kees Boersma2(1. School of Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China ; Faculty of Social Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam,De Boelelaan 1081, Netherland)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387 [2]荷兰阿姆斯特丹自由大学社会科学系

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第12期81-92,共12页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503178);国家社会科学基金重点项目(13ASH003)

摘　　要：以全国7个行政区域的114个城市为样本,分别选取不同区域的7个主导城市作为政策受力点进行政策冲击的区域扩散实验。研究以时空扩散模型和事件分析法为基础,模拟主导城市的重要房地产政策的冲击作用在本区域的扩散效应,最后提出有针对性的政策策略。研究结果表明:(1)东北区域政策作用力主要向北部城市扩散,应该以刺激性消费政策为主;(2)西北区域扩散范围不大,应慎用限购政策;(3)西南区域扩散范围主要集中在三个城市,房产税政策扩散效果明显;(4)京津冀地区受北京政策的影响并不大;(5)华中地区政策扩散范围较广,公积金类政策扩散性最强,但应慎用限购政策;(6)华东地区政策影响幅度明显,但扩散范围较小,限购类政策扩散最强;(7)华南地区政策影响的地理范围较广,但幅度不大,限购类政策最有效。In this paper,7 dominant cities in different regions are selected as the real estate policy shock points for the sample of 114 cities in 7 administrative regions of China and make the regional diffusion experiments.Research based on the spatio-temporal model and event analysis simulating the diffusion effect of important real estate policy shock in dominant cities to the region and finally targeted policy strategies are put forwarded.As the results show：（1）the policy shock in the northeast regional mainly spreads to the northern cities which should be dominated by stimulating consumption policy;（2）policy shock diffusion in the northwest have small region and should careful use of house purchase quota policies;（3）diffusion effect in the southwest region mainly concentrates in three cities,with obvious effect of the spread of property tax policy;（4）the policy shock from Beijing’s polices is not obvious in the Jing-Jin-Ji region;（5）the diffusion effect in central China region have extensive range and the public accumulation fund policies are most expansive,whereas should use the house purchase quota policies with caution;（6）the policy shocks have significant effects in the eastern China region but not small spread range,house purchase quota policies have strongest diffusivity;（7）the geographical scope of the policy shock in south China region is wide but not significant and the purchase restriction policy is most effective.

关 键 词：房地产调控政策 城市 区域扩散效应 时空模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]