全国统筹条件下城镇职工养老保险统筹基金的精算评估  

The Actuarial Assessment of the Fund Balance of Urban Workers' Basic Old-Age Insurance in National Pooling

作　　者：邓大松[1] 杨晶 DENG Da-song, YANG Jing

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期133-143,共11页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国扶贫战略研究"(16JJD840007);教育部研究阐释党的十九大精神专项任务"加快实现社会养老保险全国统筹研究"

摘　　要：利用精算评估模型考察全国统筹背景下2018—2040年城镇职工基础养老金统筹账户收支平衡状况。经过测算:全国统筹条件下,短期内不会出现城镇职工养老保险统筹账户基金"收不抵支"问题。预测期内,中国城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户基金收入呈现出了逐年递增的变动趋势,但是基金收入增速总体"趋缓"。基金支出随着时间序列的变化,呈现出明显的"增加—减少—增加"的波动特征。测算的全国统筹条件下城镇职工基本养老保险统筹基金当期结余始终为正值,但2038年后逐年"缩窄",使得未来中长期养老保险基金收支失衡问题进一步恶化。进一步研究发现,全国统筹条件下延迟退休年龄政策的实施确实能够有效缓解城镇职工基础养老金收支失衡问题。与"未延退"相比,基础养老金全国统筹条件下"延退"后的基金支付能力更强。基于此,从开源节流、精算平衡和激励机制设计三个方面,提出全国统筹条件下确保养老保险基金积累持续增长的政策措施。The aim of this paper is to study the sustainability of pension system based on data and main variables of nationwide balancing mechanism.The actuarial assessment model was employed to empirically analyze the balance of payments of the social pooling accounts in national pooling.The paper finds that the amounts of the basic pension insurance fund is increasing on the basis of the adjustment of pension payments calculating method,and there would not appear serious payments risk of urban workers＇ basic old-age insurance under the background of national pooling.In the meantime,the development of insurance funds turns out to be＂increasing-decreasing-increasing＂,which may be one of the main causes of deficit in the middle-and long-term.The policy of retirement may delay the pension time of new workers,while gradually relieve the pressure of the fund balance of basic old-age insurance in national pooling.

关 键 词：全国统筹 延迟退休 统筹账户 收支平衡 

分 类 号：F842.612[经济管理—保险]