基于元胞自动机的网络舆论演化建模及仿真  

Modeling and Simulation of Network Public Opinion Evolution Based on Cellular Automata

作　　者：胡祖平[1,2] 何建佳 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]上海理工大学超网络研究中心(中国),上海200093

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2018年第5期155-160,共6页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71171135);上海市高原学科(管理科学与工程)建设项目;上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(项目编号:2016EGL007)的成果

摘　　要：基于元胞自动机理论,将元胞观点坚守力与观点影响系数引入元胞交互规则中,提出了新的舆论演化机制,构建了基于元胞自动机的舆论演化模型,并以微信平台为例,利用Matlab仿真分析了观点坚守力参数和不同元胞比例下观点影响系数对舆论演化的影响,探究了影响舆论演化的关键因素。研究结果表明:用户观点坚守力随着舆论演化的进行而逐渐下降,群体观点坚守力的大小对于舆论传播的最终结果影响不大,但对于演化过程却具有一定的干预效果;另外,舆论观点的初始比例直接关系舆论事件的态度倾向,观点影响系数可以作为不同观点初始比例下影响舆论最终演化结果的调控因子。Based on the theory of cellular automata,this paper introduces the perseverance of cell view and the opinion influence coefficient into the rules of cell interaction,and puts forward a new mechanism of public opinion evolution. Then it constructs the evolution model of public opinion based on cellular automata. Taking WeChat platform as an example,the paper analyzes the impact of perseverance of cell view parameters and opinion influence coefficient on the evolution of public opinion under different cell proportion,and explores the key factors influencing the evolution of public opinion. The results show that the perseverance of the viewpoints of the Internet users decreases gradually with the progress of public opinion,and the degree of group＇s viewpointsperseverance has little effect on the final result of public opinion dissemination,but it has some effect on the evolution process. In addition,the initial proportion of public opinion is directly related to the tendency of public opinion events,and the influence coefficient of views can be used as the control factor for the final evolution of public opinion under the initial proportion of different views.

关 键 词：网络舆论 元胞自动机 舆情演化 演化模型 仿真 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]