联盟环境下国际航线市场份额预测方法研究  

Market Share Forecasting Method of International Routes in Alliance Environment

作　　者：赵晓松[1,2] 朱金福 葛伟[3] ZHAO Xiao-song1,2, ZHU Jin-fu1, GE Wei3(1. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanj ing 210016, China; 2. Xiamen Airlines, Xiamen 361000, China; 3. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, Chin)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]厦门航空公司,厦门361000 [3]南京邮电大学管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2018年第2期33-39,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171111);民航科技创新引导资金(MHRD20140307);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金(2014SJB010)~~

摘　　要：与一般的航线市场份额预测不同,联盟环境下国际航线合作产品是双方或多方一体化运作,产品属性复杂,预测难度大,因此,有必要探寻一种科学合理的预测方法.本文在经典QSI模型的基础上,应用大量国际航线运营数据,对路径产品各项属性进行测试筛选,提出一套改进的QSI指标体系.进一步使用中美航空市场实际数据对本文提出的QSI模型进行试验分析.结果表明,本文建立的QSI改进模型能够较好地预测国际航线市场份额,效果优于经典的QSI模型.Unlike the forecast of general routes＇ market share, the routes＇ attributes are complex and difficult to predict the market share, for international routes often need cooperation of two or more carriers, and the corresponding products are unified or diversified. It is necessary to explore a scientific and reasonable method of forecasting. Based on the QSI model, this paper proposes an improved QSI index system by selecting the attributes of the transportation products among the large data of international air transport. The proposed model in this paper is also used to predict the market share of China-USA. The results show that the improved QSI model is more suitable for predicting the market share of international routes than the classical QSI model.

关 键 词：航空运输 市场份额预测 QSI模型 国际航线 联盟合作 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]