面向漏洞生命周期的安全风险度量方法  

Vulnerability Life Cycle Oriented Security Risk Metric Method

作　　者：胡浩[1,2] 叶润国[3] 张红旗[1,2] 常德显[1,2] 刘玉岭[4] 杨英杰[1,2] HU Hao1,3, YE Run-Guo4, ZHANG Hong-Qi1,3, CHANG De-Xian1,3, LIU Yu-Ling2, YANG Ying-Jie1,3(1.The 3rd School, Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2.Trusted Computing and Information Assurance Laboratory, Institute of Software, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 China; 3.He＇nan Key Laboratory of Information Security （Information Engineering University）, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 4.China Electronics Standardization Institute, Beijing 100007, China)

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学三院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省信息安全重点实验室(信息工程大学),河南郑州450001 [3]中国电子技术标准化研究院,北京100007 [4]中国科学院软件研究所可信计算与信息保障实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《软件学报》2018年第5期1213-1229,共17页Journal of Software

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFF0204002;2016YFF0204003);"十三五"装备预研领域基金(6140002020115);CCF-启明星辰"鸿雁"科研计划基金(2017003);郑州市科技领军人才项目(131PLJRC644);蚂蚁金服科研基金~~

摘　　要：为了反映信息系统安全漏洞的风险随时间动态变化的规律,构建了基于吸收Markov链的漏洞生命周期模型,计算先验历史漏洞信息作为模型输入,构造漏洞生命周期的状态转移概率矩阵,在时间维度上,利用矩阵对状态演化过程进行推导.借鉴通用漏洞评分标准分析漏洞威胁影响,给出了安全漏洞的时间维度风险量化方法,并对漏洞生命周期各状态发生概率的演化规律进行了总结和分析.最后,以典型APT攻击场景中"Wanna Cry"勒索病毒的漏洞利用过程为例,验证了模型及方法的合理性和有效性.In order to reflect the dynamic change of vulnerability security risk over time in an information system, this paper developed a life cycle stochastic model based on the absorbing Markov. The prior historical vulnerability information is used as the input. Then the state transition probability matrix of vulnerability life cycle is constructed. Specifically, the state evolution process is simulated in the dimension of time using matrix deduction. Meanwhile, the common vulnerability scoring system （CVSS） is utilized to measure the threat impact of vulnerabilities in the network system. Furthermore, a quantitative risk method to measure security vulnerability in terms of time dimension is provided to analyze some probability evolution rules with respect to the states of vulnerability life cycle. Finally, the exploits by the ransomware ＂WannaCry＂ in a typical APT attack scenario are taken as an example to verify the rationality and validity of the presented model and method.

关 键 词：风险度量 漏洞生命周期 随机模型 吸收Markov链 动态评估 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]