资本账户开放度、货币政策独立性与汇率制度选择:三元悖论还是二元悖论?  

Capital Account Openness, Monetary Policy Validity and Exchange Rate Regime Trilemma or Dilemma?

作　　者：刘金全[1] 张菀庭 徐宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2018年第5期3-13,64,共12页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"引领经济发展‘新常态’的市场基础;体制机制和发展方式研究"(项目编号:15ZDC&008);吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目"我国资产价格错位的形成机理与货币政策调控研究"(项目编号:2017059)

摘　　要：现有关于资本开放的研究多聚焦于资本项目自由化、利率及汇率市场化顺序的探讨,却忽视了资本开放顺序对货币政策独立性的影响。实际上,实现资本项目自由化的同时能否保持货币政策逆周期调控的效力,决定了货币当局对危机的反应能力,更是一国能否开放资本账户的关键条件。有鉴于此,文章首先采用状态空间模型测量出中国的实际资本开放度,随后利用引入含有交互项的回归模型评价不同汇率制度下,资本账户开放度对货币政策独立性的影响差异,主要得出以下三点结论:第一,汇率制度变迁不会动摇资本开放对于货币政策独立性的影响,因此汇率市场化和资本项目自由化不存在必然的先后顺序;第二,考虑近期全球避险情绪高涨,现阶段二元悖论与中国经济的实际运行状况更加吻合;第三,受国际不稳定因素影响,近期不宜加快资本账户开放,这可能会诱发产出调控失灵、资本泡沫膨胀以及系统性金融风险。This paper employs a state space model to measure China's real capital account openness,and introduces regression models with interactive terms to evaluate the differences among the impact of capital account openness on monetary policy dependence under different exchange rate regimes.Main conclusions are as follows:firstly,exchange rate regime switching will not affect the influence of capital account openness on monetary policy independence,thus there is no fixed sequence between liberalization of capital account and interest rate;secondly,taking the recent rise in global risk aversion into consideration,the dilemma is more consistent with China's economy;and lastly,due to international instability,it is not appropriate to accelerate capital account liberalization recently,cause this could lead to monetary policy failure、capital over-expansion and systemic financial risks.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 货币政策独立性 汇率制度 二元悖论 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F832.6