进度控制中随机活动综合期望时间分析法  

Correct Analysis Method of Stochastic Factors in the Process of Scheduling Control

作　　者：葛震明[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》1998年第2期46-49,54,共5页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

摘　　要：在分析项目管理进度（时间）控制中，传统地以活动期望时间作为控制依据的失误，提出了以平行活动综合期望时间为控制的分析方法。从理论上（数学分析）证实了该方法的正确性，并举实例加以说明。To control effectively the schedule of a project,especially of a large and complex project,is one of the cruxes in project management because of involving all sorts of stochastic factors.So far some methors have been offered to define the proloblitic distribution of the stochastic activities .In general,the expected time implementing a stochastic activity is widely believed to be the bases when used to analyze and to control the schedule of a project.In fact, there are certain mistake in practice.In this paper, the comprehensive expected time for paralle lactivities having the same starting and the same finishing node in a network plan is used to control a schedule.At the same time,the correctness of using the comprehensive expected time is also proved through mathematic analysis.Finally a simple example described the usage of the method and the right of the conclusion.

关 键 词：进度控制 活动期望时间 平行活动综合期望时间 项目管理 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济]