免签对中国入境旅游需求影响分国别研究  

Study on the Influence of Visa-free Policy on the Demand of China's Inbound Tourism from the Perspective of the Source Country

作　　者：杨闽芳 黄秀娟[1] 陈卫 朱佳佳[1] YANG Min fang;HUANG Xiu juan;CHEN Wei;ZHU Jia jia(Management College,Fujian Agriculture and Forest University, Fuzhou 350002 ,Chin)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《科技和产业》2018年第5期48-52,共5页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家旅游局科研项目(17TACG005)

摘　　要：以客源国入境中国的旅游需求为研究对象,利用32个客源国2009-2015年入境中国的短面板数据,构建旅游需求模型,并使用混合回归,研究了免签对客源国入境中国旅游需求的影响。研究结果表明:免签对客源国入境中国旅游需求有显著积极的影响,免签便利化分数每增加1%,客源国入境中国旅游需求将增加约0.37%。此外,旅游住宿条件、客源国总人口数等对客源国入境中国旅游需求也产生一定影响。This article takes the tourist demand of source country to China as the research object,uses the short panel data of 32 tourist source countries entering China from 2009 to 2015,builds a tourism demand model,and uses a mixed regression to study on the impact on the China＇s inbound tourism＇s demand of source country of visa-free policy.The results of the study show that visa waiver has a significant positive impact on the demand for foreign tourists entering China.With a 1% increase in the visa-free facilitation score,the demand for tourist arrivals in China will increase by approximately 0.37%.In addition,tourism accommodation conditions,the total number of source countries,etc.,also have a certain impact on the demand of foreign tourists coming to China for tourism.

关 键 词：免签 客源国入境旅游需求 面板数据 混合回归 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]