混合Copula概率潮流追踪输电固定成本分摊法  

Hybrid Copula Probabilistic Power Flow Tracing Method for Allocation of Fixed Transmission Cost

作　　者：曹昉[1] 舒雅丽 李成仁[2] 段燕群[2] CAO Fang;SHU Yali;LI Chengren;DUAN Yanqun(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute,Beijing 100052,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206 [2]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2018年第5期111-119,共9页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为探究适合于我国特高压输电网特征的输电成本分摊方法,研究大规模可再生能源的相关性和不确定性对电网潮流及输电成本分摊结果的影响,引入混合Copula函数构建具有相关性输入随机可再生能源出力的概率分布模型。结合蒙特卡罗概率潮流计算方法和潮流追踪法,提出了一种计及可再生能源出力相关性的混合Copula概率潮流追踪法分摊特高压输电固定成本。以IEEE30节点改进交直流混合特高压输电系统为例,在发电端加入两个风力发电厂实际出力,对混合Copula函数的出力模拟值进行准确性评估,并分析了概率潮流追踪法分摊输电固定成本结果的有效性,验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。In order to find a transmission cost allocation method which is suitable for the characteristics of ultra-high voltage（UHV）transmission network in China and study the impact of relevancies and uncertainties resulting from large-scale renewable energy sources on the power flow and transmission cost allocation result,a hybrid Copula function is introduced to construct a probability distribution model for the renewable energy sources with random output. With the combination of Monte Carlo probabilistic power flow calculation method and power flow tracing method,a hybrid Copula probabilistic power flow tracing method is proposed to allocate the fixed UHV transmission cost. An IEEE 30-node system is modified as an AC/DC hybrid UHV transmission system and further used as a numerical example：the output of two wind farms is added on the generation side,and the simulation output of the hybrid Copula function is evaluated accurately;moreover,the effectiveness of the allocation of fixed transmission cost by using probabilistic power flow tracing method is analyzed,which verifies the validity and advantage of the proposed method.

关 键 词：COPULA理论 特高压 输电定价 概率潮流 潮流追踪 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]